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THE HOG SITUATION 

 By L. F. Stlce, Extension Marketing Specialist 



The December 1 pig crop report of the U. S. Department of Agriculture does 

 not change the I9U6 hog price outlook algniflcantly. Whereas earlier reports had in- 

 dicated a 19^+6 spring pig crop of the same size as in 19^5, this report indicates a 

 2 percent increace. A 7 percent increase is expected in the eastern corn-belt rtates 

 which reflects the larger 19'+5 com crop particularly in Indiana and Ohio. It is 

 likely that 19^6 spring pigs will be farrowed earlier than J.n the last two years, which 

 will result in earlier marketings next fall than this year. Support prices decline 

 after September 30, 19^6, and reach a low of $10.75 in December 19^6, Chicago basis, 

 for good to choice barrows and gilts. However, the demand is expected to be good 

 enough that market prices will not reach this level, althou^i a decline is to be ex- 

 pected. 



PIG CEOPS, U.S., SPRING, FALL, AND TOTAL, 

 1937-19^1 AV., 19UI-I9U5 



125 



100 



75 



50- 



25 



ol 



122 



Pi^s 





m 



\ 



87 



87 



n 



m 







> 



m 



iKV.i 



:tsi^ 



125 



100 



The 12 percent larger 

 19^4-5 fall pig crop will be re- 

 flected in heavier marketings in 

 the late npring of 19^4-6. 'Prices 

 are expected to drop below the 

 ceilings at this time but should 

 remain above the support level of 

 $13. 



-75 



l^Ml 19^1 19^2 19^+3 19^^ 19^'5 19^6* 

 av. 



♦Preliminary estimate 



It is difficult to ana- 

 lyze the situation for 19^6 fall 

 pigs at thid time. A tight com 

 situation next spring and summer 

 will likely result in a 19^6 fall 

 -50 P^6 crop smaller than the 35 mil- 

 lion head raised this fall. Con- 

 sumer incomes will likely be good 

 25 in the spring of I9U7 when these 

 pigs will be marketed, but the 

 number of cattle fed next winter, 

 export demand end the size of the 

 19^6 com crop, all unpredictable 

 factors, will influence hog prices 

 in I9J+7. 







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