9 



. THE HOG SITUATION 

 By L. F. Stice, Extenolon Marketing Speclalic^t 



The December 1 pig crop report of the U. S. liep^rtment of Agriculture does 

 not change the 19^+6 hog price outlook .li^nificantly. V;heren3 earlier reportp h?id In- 

 dicated a 19^6 spring pig crop cf the s^me size as in 19^5, thi? report indicates a 

 2 percent increase. A 7 percent increase io expected in the eaptern corn-he It rtatea 

 which reflects the larger 19^5 corn crop particularly in Indiana and Chic. It in 

 likely that 19^6 npring pigs will he farrowed earlier than in the la^t two yearr^, which 

 will renult in earlier narketingg next fall than this year. Support prices decline 

 after Septomher 30, 19^+6, and reach a low of $10.75 in Tecer.ber I9I16/ Chicago baplr^, 

 for good to choice barrows and gilts. However, the dcinflnd io expected to be good 

 enough that market prices will not reach this level, although a decline is to be ex- 

 pected, ' 



The 12 p*»rcent larger ■ 

 19^5 f'^11 pis crop will be r«^- 

 flected in heavier marketing? in 

 the late npring of 19^6. Prices 

 are expected to drop below the 

 ceilings at this time but should^ 

 remain above the Fupport level pf 

 $15. 



PIG CROPS,, U.S., SPRING, FALL, AlW TOTAL, 

 1957-19^1 A7., 191^1-19115 



125 



100 



75 



50 



25 



OL 



122 



A 



105 



77 



*■:■;■-;•; 



85 



[111 



Pi 73 



prifig 



87 



Pigi? 



87 



n 



125 



100 



1 



195HSi91^1 19^2 191+3 19l;lf 19U5 19116 



75 



50 



25 







av 



♦Preliminary estimate 



It is difficult to ana- 

 lyze the situation for I9I+6 fall 

 pigs at this time. A tight corn 

 nituation next spring and purriner 

 will likely result in a 19I+6 fall 

 pig crop smaller than the 55 inil- 

 licn head reiced this fall. Con- 

 sumer incomes will likely be good 

 in the spring of 19^+7 when the^^^ 

 pigs will be marketed, but the 

 number of cattle fed next winte;*, 

 export demand and the size cf the 

 I9I+6 corn crop, all unpredictable 

 factors, will influence hog rricer' 

 in I9I+7. 



