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DRAFT 



factor's impact was arbitrary and was not based on a change in salmonid population 

 abundance, and (5) the method used could not measure the impact of multiple factors 

 acting simultaneously on a population. These matrix problems resulted in conclusions 

 that were oversimplified, incorrect and not scientifically valid. 



To demonstrate the complexity of quantifying and evaluating the effects of various 

 factors on salmonid production in a scientifically valid manner, the Department 

 provides an example of an alternative matrix approach. The example approach is based 

 upon a prediction of the relative change in adult salmonid production due to a variety 

 of factors, and is consistent with concepts currently being used in life cycle modeling to 

 weight the effects of various mortality sources on salmonid production :n the Columbia 

 River Basin. A major difference between this approach and the report's matrix is that 

 the relative importance of a factor, or combination of factors, is based upon the 

 predicted change in total adult production of a species. 



The Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife has concluded that this report does not 

 provide an adequate scientific analysis or justification to support the conclusions 

 concerning the relative contribution of environmental and management factors to the 

 decline of Oregon's anadromous salmonids. 



BACKGROUND 



In June 1992, a report sponsored by the Oregon Forest Industries Council (OFIC) titled 

 'A Review of Management and Environmental Factors Responsible for the Decline and 

 Lack of Recovery of Oregon's Wild Anadromous Salmonids' was released to the public. 

 The purpose of this document was to evaluate management and environmental factors 

 to determine the relative contribution of these factors to the decline and lack of 

 recovery of Oregon's native salmonid stocks. This report has been heralded by the 

 OFIC as "...the most comprehensive evaluation done to date on the relative reasons for 

 the crisis in our fisheries. " 



The Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (Department) is very concerned with the 

 decline of anadromous salmonid stocks in the Pacific Northwest. The scope of these 

 declines was discussed in an American Fisheries Society report (Nehlsen et al. 1991). 

 Given the importance of this issue to the activities and responsibilities of this agency, 

 and to the citizens of Oregon, the Department conducted a review of the OFIC report 

 to determine if it provided constructive insight into defining these current problems. 

 This report presents the findings of our review. 



INTRODUCTION 



The Department's review of the OFIC report involved two major tasks: (1) a review of 

 the scientific information presented in the report, and (2) an evaluation of the analytical 

 methods used to rank the relative importance of factors implicated in the decline of 

 Oregon's anadromous fisheries resources. The review of the scientific information 

 included verification of the accuracy of the data and conclusions extracted from cited 

 scientific studies and information sources, and a review of the completeness of the 

 scientific literature presented in the report. The review of the analytical methods used 



