417 



Iil£ 1111 POWER PLAN COST UNCERTATMTY 



A REFERENCE PLANT model for cost analysis and for fuel 

 availability is critical in an engineering determina- 

 tion of the cost and economics of a power plant. in- 

 advisedly the Northwest Power Planning Council, was led 

 to and adopted as their FUNDAMENTAL SOLAR EQUATION the 

 abstruse Algorithm and Nomograph developed at the 

 Electric Power Research Institute in 1983 for the 

 Department of Energy 5-Year Research Plan-198«t-88 . 

 The same 1983 values are shown in The fundamentaJ solar 

 equation nomograph in the Council's 1991 POWER PLAN 

 uses the same 1983 "efficiency values' locations, 

 although with extended ordinate and abscissa. Thus, 

 the COUNCIL determined their COST UMCERTAINTY ^i^ 

 30</kWh levelized nominal cost for SoJar Photovoltajc 

 in their 1991 POWER PLAN. No references nor 

 documentation are evident in the 1991 POWER PLAN, nor 

 in incidental COUNCIL Issue Papers to support either 

 the PV module or balance-of-plant costs used in the 

 nomograph determination of a JOt/kMh leveJized nomJnaJ 

 cost for Solar Photovol talcs . There are no references 

 to extant physical plants, demonstration plants, 

 conceptual designs nor to some plant mockup upon which 

 to analyze the costs used in the Council's 

 determinations. The following Nomograph is the 

 COUNCIL'S "Fundamental Solar Equation"; hardly a 



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