359 



Recent evaluations of West Coast Chinook salmon production indicate that Snake River 

 spring chinook escapement has generally tracked overall West Coast production, as well 

 as production in several other river basins. Similar production trends can be observed 

 between the Snake River spring Chinook salmon run and aggregated West Coast 

 production, particularly during the period of the 1980s. As illustrated within Rgure 1, the 

 Snake River escapement above Lower Granite Dam has matched very closely the rate 

 of change in overall West Coast production estimates. Also, the overall Snake River 

 spring Chinook escapement trend follows similar production trends observed in other 

 West Coast river basins. Existing data indicate that these West Coast production trends 

 have affected hatchery and wild fish runs alike. 



As such, any attempt to evaluate the Snake River smolt transportation program based on 

 raw score escapement/production estimates is fundamentally flawed. 



Salmon Speculation Versus Salmon Science: 



The above comments suggest that science has much to offer, as the region pursues the 

 difficult objective of salmon recovery. There are recovery measures, such as 

 improvements to smolt transportation, that have a much greater scientific foundation than 

 others and pose much fewer risks to the resource. Also, there are factors well beyond 

 tiie control of a fresh water river system that must be recognized. It is important for 

 resource managers and decision makers to make every effort to place speculation in its 

 proper perspective and to acknowledge salmon recovery attemalives that best pass the 

 test of scientific scrutiny. 



Bruce Lovelin, Exec. Dir., NIU 



NIU Board 



AWUF Board 



NMFS Salmon Recovery Team 



Stan Grace/Dr. Tom Tailove, NPPC 



LL Col. Robert Volz, Army Corps 



Dr. John Donaldson. Exec. Dir., CBFWA 



Fred piney, U.S. Rsh & Wildlife Service 



Distiibution 



