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COLUMBIA BASIN SALMON BRIEnNG PAPER 



LOWERING JOHN DAY POOL 



A Crucial Step toward Providing Safe, In-River Migration 

 for Columbia-Snake Basin Salmon 



SUPPLEMENT (Final Revised) 

 July, 1993 



Since the publication in March, 1993 of environmentalists' briefing paper on the lowering 

 of John Day reservoir to minimum operating pool, the Northwest Power Planning Council staff has 

 produced a new calculation of the flow augmentation requirements equivalent to the John Day 

 lowering. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has released two versions of a critique of the briefing 

 paper. In addition, the Northwest Irrigation Utilities (NIU) and other sponsors have contracted for 

 a study of biological risks possibly associated with the John Day lowering. This supplement to the 

 earlier briefing paper offers new information, including the new calculation from the Northwest 

 Power Planning Council staff, as well as a response to the Corps and NIU. 



Cost-Effectiveness 



What efficiency is to electricity generation, reservoir drawdowns are to flow augmentation. 

 The analogy goes a long way to illustrating the advantages, and the opposition, to drawdowns. Like 

 drawdowns, energy efficiency is much cheaper than the alternative in terms of operating expenses; 

 it has little or none. But the front-end capital costs are relatively high. 



On the other hand, because the Bonneville Power Administration (EPA) can leverage capital 

 costs by borrowing for 50 years from the U.S. Treasury, these one-time investments for drawdowns 

 have a very small impact on rates indeed. In contrast, flow augmentation — the release of water from 

 upstream storage reservoirs such as Grand Coulee — carries substantial price tags which BPA and 

 the region must pay out in lost revenues and/or up-front operating cash year after year forever. 



Even assuming that it in fact cost the full $1.3 billion to modify all four Lower Snake projects 

 as estimated by the Corps, this capital expense would translate roughly to a modest 5 percent rate 

 increase total — which, if phased in over ten years, would yield just a 1/2 percent rate increase per 

 year. If this represents economic catastrophe, then the Northwest is already doomed because 

 inflation will well exceed 1/2 percent annually throughout the coming decade. 



Similarly, BPA says that the agency will spend upwards of $70 million this year alone buying 

 power in order to protect the additional 'water budgef block of 3 million acre-feet (MAP) in the 

 Columbia. A drawdown of John Day would yield at least the equivalent flow augmentation, but 

 would require a single one-time capital investment of $77 million. 



NPPC Calculation: MIP to MOP 



Last winter the Northwest Power Planning Council staff calculated the flow augmentation 

 requirement equivalent to a John Day drawdown to minimum operating pool (MOP) — 4.3 million 

 acre-feet. This analysis assumed a reservoir lowering from normal pool to MOP. 



