1. Duration of Drawdown 



2. Effect of Drawdown 

 on Grain Sfiipments 



441 



1 his paper discusses impacts which drawdown would have on barge 

 movement of commodities, especially agricultural commodities, and subsequent 

 impacts on river system users as well as the region's economy. 



While both longer and shorter drawdown periods are possibilities, the 

 principal scenario being discussed would drop pools behind one or more of the 

 four lower Snake River dams (Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental 

 and Ice Harbor) to below minimum operating pool level for 8 to 12 weeks, 

 April to June. Pools might drop as low as the spillway crest for some portion 

 of that time. Any pool drop below minimum operating level, interrupts barge 

 movement. TTne lower Snake ports presently shut down for 2 weeks each year 

 for lock repair and maintenance. In the future, this could be done during the 

 drawdown, so the drawdown would extend the present shutdown period by 6 

 to 10 weeks. Shippers would have to alter their marketing and logistical patterns 

 in response to this longer shutdown. 



borne previous discussions of the drawdown effects on barge traffic have 

 assumed that shipmetits of grain would continue during the shutdown period. 

 Shippers would face some increases in transportation and handling costs caused 

 by the disruption, most significantly the incremental cost of continuing to 

 ship the usual quantity of grain during the shutdown, via the next higher cost 

 alternative mode. The Corps of Engineers estimates that shipping a bushel of 

 wheat to Portland from ports on the Lower Granite pool costs only 171 by barge, 

 but as much as 3 1 < by rail and 86c by truck (reference 4, page 4-104). Some 

 estimates of drawdown damage on shipping wheat via alternative modes from 

 river ports to Portland have been distressingly large. However, the actual damage 

 may be a lot lower because shippers' adjustments to drawdown may be more 

 creative than just shipping via an alternative mode. 



1 he grain price in terminal markets is determined by global supply and 

 demand conditions. However, farmers are price takers in the market; the price 

 they receive equals the price at the terminal market less the cost of marketing 

 grain to that terminal. In the absence of changes in international grain prices, 

 changes in handling costs, transpwrtation, storage, risk, and financing all affea 

 the net price that farmers receive for their grain. 



Information on monthly prices received by Idaho farmers over the last 6 



years is shown in Figure 1. These prices are net of the costs of transportation and 



