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points off the river as well as at the river pons. TTiese managers suggested that, 

 at least for a 2-month period, they could adjust shipment patterns within their 

 firms. If this happens, it is not necessary to worry about prepositioning or 

 destination storage constraints. What effect regional differences in variety 

 and quality would have on this market driven adjustment process is unclear 

 and requires further detailed study. 



Only if this likely market driven adjustment fails to occur would terminal 

 elevators be unable to service all export sales during the drawdown period. 

 If they could not efficiently acquire grain from sources other than via lower 

 Snake River barges, or if they lack storage to buffer their flow of grain during 

 this period, they would be unable to expeditiously load vessels bound for 

 export. Bottlenecks at raiicar unloading facilities, or problems with the 

 deepwater ship channel below Portland in the postdrawdown period, might 

 cause some vessel operators to call at other ports or some international purchasers 

 to seek supplies elsewhere. 



Oeasonal interruptions to barge traffic are not unique to this panicular 

 proposal. The Great Lakes Region and upper Mississippi River freeze every 

 winter. Producers whose products are hauled by barge during the rest of the 

 year must either lay out of the market or make alternative plans for product 

 transportation during the winter. A study to evaluate barge traffic in such 

 areas to see what might be learned for the situation here in the Pacific Nonhwest 

 might be useful. 



A river drawdown would have effects on a wide range of individuals, groups, 

 organizations, and public entities. 



a. Farmers 



As noted above, a large part of the transportation-related costs of drawdown 

 would probably be mitigated by market induced adjustments, so the effects 

 on farmers may not be large. However, to the extent that such mitigation is 

 incomplete, most of the remaining costs will probably be passed on to farmers. 

 Such costs would vary by geographic region. Farmers closest to the lower Snake 

 River corridor, those who benefitted most when barge transportation came into 

 the region 1 5 years ago, now stand to lose some of those benefits. This loss 

 would be especially painful because it occurs after those benefits have been 

 capitalized into land value. 



3. Distribution of Effects 



