450 



such as the US Army Corps of Engineers and the potentially affeaed parties, 

 well in advance of any river drawdown could therefore be a very effective 

 mitigation measure. 



Vv e conclude that shippers who presently de[>end on the lower Snake 

 River ports are likely to be very creative in modifying the timing and mode 

 of their shipments in response to any drawdown of the river. They have a 

 strong economic incentive to do so. These market-driven adjustments are 

 likely to mitigate some of the impact of a river drawdown. Those estimates 

 which predict devastating impaas on the region's shippers could be seen as 

 negotiation postures. 



1 here will, however, be some impacts. Some individuals and some firms 

 will suffer costs if a drawdown is implemented. Other individuals will be in a 

 position to gain. These gains and losses will be extremely important to those 

 affected. More study is needed to help us understand the gains and losses and 

 their distribution. We need this information if we are to have any hope of 

 efficiently targeting mitigation efforts. 



References: 



Casavant, K.L. and Jerry Lenzi, "Preparing for Rail Line 

 Abandonment: Prediction of Financial and Locational 

 Impacts on ^^iAi, Journal of the Transportation Research 

 Forum, Volume XXX, #2, 1990. 



Hamilton, J.R.. N.K. Whittlesey. M.H. Robison and J. Ellis, 

 "Economic Impaas, Value Added, and Benefits in Regional 

 Projea Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 

 May 1991. 



Henry, R.L., "Curtailed Transporution Use of the Columbia/ 

 Snake Riven A Review of Impact on Produa Marketing 

 Cost," Idaho Transportation Council, Boise, July 1991. 

 US Army Corps of Engineers, "Draft Columbia River Salmon 

 Flow Measures: Options Analysis EIS", September 1991. 



5. Conclusions 



n 



