121 



Results 



A total of 400 Chinook salmon spavming escapement surveys (292 

 of wild, 67 of hatcheries, and 41 of others that include mixed 

 hatchery and wild data such as dam and weir counts) were found to 

 have time series long enough for this analysis. In examining the 

 most recent survey abundaxice, less thain 26% (103) of the surveys 

 were greater than 50% of the historical maximum, with greater than 

 30% (122) being 10% or less than the historical maximum as of 1990 

 (Figure 1) . 



In examining the most recent value for the 292 surveys of wild 

 saJLmon alone, about 24% (69) were greater than 50% of the 

 historical maximum abundance, however in more t h an 36% (106) of the 

 surveys, the most recent annual aibundance was 10% or less of the 

 historical maximum survey abundance (Figure 2) . After editing 

 the list of wild salmon surveys at or below the 10% seeding level 

 to exclude observations about which the authors have unans wered 

 questions, there remain 44 biologically well known survey sites 

 that are most likely to be indicative of critically damaged salmon 

 popxilations (Table 1) - The 44 surveys identified as critically 

 damaged (Table 1) are also noteworthy in that all of the surveys in 

 Idaho, and most of the surveys in Oregon, as well as one in 

 Washington, contain individuals of species listed as threatened 

 under the federal Endangered Species Act. More than half of the 

 wild surveys (53%; 155) were most recently at levels of annual 

 abundance of no more than 20% of their maxima during the time span 

 of the surveys. 



Of the 67 hatchery observations, slightly less than 39% (26) 

 had most recent cinnual abundances above 50% of their maxima during 

 the time span of the surveys (Figiire 3) . Less than 24% (16) of 

 these most recent annual cibundances were at, or below, 10% of their 

 maxima during the time span of the surveys. 



In examining trends in abundance in the 400 annuaJ. time 

 series, 117 (29%) had significantly negative slopes, and were found 

 to have their most recent annual abimdances below 50% of their 

 mctxima during the time span of the surveys (Figure 4) . Among these 

 badly damaged and decreasing Chinook soirveys, nearly half (47%; 55) 

 were at or below 10% of their maxima during the time span of the 

 surveys, and fully 70% (82) were at or below the 20% level. 



