348 



But you can see where the crux of the matter is. This means we 

 have to go together for 30 years. And nobody — everybody should 

 agree from the start we stick together for that time. 



You know international organizations in Europe — fine, the Euro- 

 pean Community is a political community, but CERN isn't an 

 international governmental treaty ratified by Parliament and a 

 program, for instance the construction of the ISR accelerator, was 

 not part of the basic program and governments who declared their 

 adherence for the construction time declared their intention — not 

 only intention, they took the obligation not to leave this program 

 until it was finished. The only safety they gained on that was a 

 limitation on real time increases to 10 or 15 percent. In other 

 words, whoever signed up for those 30 GEV in 1971 declared they 

 would stick it out until 1979. 



Can we do that for 30 years? That is really the crux of the 

 matter. I think if the scientists in the field would see the slightest 

 chance that this could come about they would concentrate their 

 minds fantastically. It is a question who was there first, the hen or 

 the egg. 



In European collaboration, very often the scientist could take the 

 initiative. How to take that initiative across the Atlantic is a bit 

 more difficult. 



We are both, I think, feeling like fish out of the water because 

 the political systems are somewhat different. 



Mr. FuQUA. Let me ask you my final question. I apologize to my 



colleagues for going on so long, but how long do you think it will be 



before we have ignition and ready for commercialization of fusion? 



Dr. WusTER. A commercial fusion reactor in my mind is an 



animal which can come in existence in the second quarter of the 



next century, and it depends on the laws of nature. And with our 



luck and intelligence, it will come at the beginning or at the end. 



Mr. FuQUA. The second quarter of the next century? 



Dr. WusTER. Twenty to thirty years if we are very lucky; thirty 



to fifty if we have to work harder. It is the idea of a nonplasma 



physicist. 



Mr. FuQUA. The reason I asked, lay people and politicians seem 

 to think it is kind of like finding the pot of gold at the end of the 

 rainbow, it is very elusive. I remember 10 years ago scientists were 

 saying probably 20 to 25 years. Sixteen years have gone by, and now 

 you are saying — and I certainly respect your judgment, and I think 

 that is probably a more realistic question. 



The question we are faced with is, is it going to be worth that 

 with the amount of money we spend in the program for that many 

 years? Will it be that beneficial? 

 I don't know the answer to that. 



Dr. WusTER. I would like to point out one detail which might 

 give rise to misunderstanding. The demonstration reactor that is 

 the vehicle to prove economic viability in my mind is due between 

 2000 and 2010. 



So what I was speaking of was the real commercialization that is 

 when all the types like myself and governments can drop out and 

 industry can start hopefully making money with these things, and 

 that is, in my view, the second quarter of the next century. 



