463 



technology, creation of powerful "military-industrial 

 complexes." or some other factor? 



These issues are by no means reducible into "j;ood" 

 and "bad" sides, or even into "realistic" and "idealistic" 

 approaches to space policy and potential futures. Rather, 

 our traditional preferential yardsticks are unreliable. 

 "Cooperation" stifles rapid growth; "regulation" kills 

 investment; "civilian control" is illusory when identical 

 systems can be put to military or civilian uses; and 

 "militarization" of space is not a priori a bad thing in any 

 case. In fact, for all these issues in space history — issues 

 that will challenge the Shuttle and that must be under- 

 stood in the historical context — there are sound cultural 

 values supporting both sides of the debate. Thus, the 

 study of the history and future of domestic and inter- 

 national space policy constitutes a useful tool for 

 analyzing some of the most crucial dilemmas confronting 

 late twentieth century society. 



(C) Selected Research Topics 



Specific historical problems suitable for classroom study 

 and research include: ( 1 ) the origins of Sputnik and 

 Russian astronautics; (2) the impact of Sputnik on U.S. 

 science policy and society in general; 13) the roots and 

 organization of the U.S. space program; (4) the decision 

 to go to the Moon; (5) the struggle by the U.S. Air 

 Force in the 1950s to control the space program; (6| the 

 impact of Apollo on the space program and society as a 

 whole; (7) successes and limitations of international law 

 and cooperation in space; (8) the origins of the Space 

 Shuttle; (9) the administrative history of NASA and its 

 relations with other agencies, the aerospace industry, and 

 universities; and 1 10) the history and goals of the Soviet, 

 French, European. Japanese, Chinese, and/or Indian space 

 programs. 



(D) Space Age History and the Future 



Finally, the whole point of the historical exercise is to 

 comprehend the current political environment in which 

 the Shuttle operates. What is the organizational, inter- 

 national, and programmatic context of the Shuttle, 

 Spacelab, and other related systems.-' After all, this age 

 still represents the infancy of spaceflight. Barring war or 

 a scientific Dark Age, world operations in space will 

 increase exponentially over the next fifty years. For now, 

 policymakers still are functioning in the formative years, 

 when the patterns and rules of the space game are being 

 established. If the Shuttle is to elevate the space age to 

 maturity — and if "the child is the father of the man" — 

 then policymakers must understand the history of the 

 early decades in space in order to be sensitive to its 

 offspring. 



III. The Future as History: Analogical Approach 

 A. The Use and Abuse of Analogy 



What does the space age mean to humanity.' How can 

 the world possibly grasp the impact of the revolution 

 precipitated by space technology and resultant pioneering 

 of the limitless medium of space.* In 1962, Bruce IV^azlish 



addressed this question, and almost two decades later, it 

 is difficult to improve upon the logic and imagination of 

 The Railroad and the Space Program: An Exploration in 

 Historical Analo/^y. This book must constitute the 

 starting point for discussions of the use of analogy in 

 judging the current and future impacts of space 

 technology. 



Historical analogies are irresistibly enticing. The most 

 natural mental processes incline human beings toward 

 conjuring up like things and situations from experience 

 as a means of processing current data acquired through 

 our senses. For space law. analysts find it impossible not 

 to think of the Law of the Sea or the Antarctic Treaty. 

 For space exploration in general, one thinks of the 

 Spanish voyages of discovery. For control of new and 

 forbidding technologies, how can one resist the analogy 

 of the atomic bomb and nuclear power.^ Yet, all analo- 

 gies are vain except for purposes of narrow illustration — 

 or to explain how past statesmen themselves may have 

 been influenced by the same analogies. Mazlish correctly 

 identified the space phenomenon as more than a "new 

 frontier," a "new technological breakthrough," or a "new 

 battlefield among nations." He viewed space exploration 

 as a technological complex that came to represent a social 

 invention, as society was forced to restructure itself in 

 many ways to accommodate the new technology. And in 

 searching for a historical analog to the space social inven- 

 tion, Mazlish concluded that the coming of the railroad 

 was most fitting. No other previous invention so changed 

 the very proportions of space and time and power as the 

 railroad. This is a subtle and complex analogy, which 

 Mazlish and the other contributors to his volume examined 

 in depth. Unfortunately, historical analogy is abused far 

 more than fruitfully used. Facile comparisons to Columbus 

 do a disservice to history and to the effort to understand 

 the space phenomenon. But flexible and nuanced consid- 

 eration of past explorations and inventions can provide 

 insights into possible future paths. 



B. Analogy and Imagination 



How can an instructor employ analogies like the rail- 

 road and its impact on American history to understand 

 the Shuttle-derived technologies and their impact.-' The 

 answer includes the exercise of historical judginent to 

 temper and stimulate the imagination about the possible 

 pace of change and existing barriers to change, as well as 

 to anticipate novelty, rather than assume continuities. 

 Some examples: 



( 1 1 hem: The Space Shuttle. 



Potentials: Rapid increases may occur in the 

 volume of space activity in fields where practical 

 payoff is assured. Great decreases in cost-per-pound 

 of launches may be possible, and tolerance for 

 discretionary and risky enterprises may increase as 

 well. The Shuttle is a likely stimulus to terrestrial 

 technology and industry. 



Analogs: The advent of seaworthy "workhorse" 

 merchant vessels, such as the Dutch fluit of the 

 seventeenth century, is analogous to the Shuttle. 

 Trade in Asian spices or South American metals 



