702 



117 



conceptual design to detailed engineering design by 1988 and into 

 construction by 1991. 



NET conceptual design studies are now under way at Garching with an 

 EC team under the leadership of a former director of the Italian 

 laboratory (NET Team, 1984). NET is viewed currently as an 

 engineering test reactor. The current intent is that NET should 

 provide all the data needed for a real, though perhaps not an 

 economic, power-producing reactor. Other, less ambitious, options 

 will also be studied. These studies have not yet developed to a point 

 where they can be compared with U.S. designs and cost estimates, but 

 such comparisons should be possible beginning later this year. 



INCENTIVES AND CONSTRAINTS 



Needs for Program Results 



An obvious condition for successful international cooperation is that 

 the needs of the participants for program results must be reasonably 

 compatible. A French official noted that both the EC and the U.S. 

 programs lacked clear enough objectives to provide high 

 compatibility. Although the stated goal of the EC 

 program — "construction of prototype reactors with a view to their 

 industrial production and marketing" — seems straightforward, it omits 

 much detail as to performance, schedules, and cost. U.S. goal 

 statements are even less definite. 



United Kingdom (U.K.) officials noted that the need for fusion 

 perceived in that country was not strong, since the United Kingdom 

 still exports energy. Fast breeder reactors were thought to be more 

 promising and less costly. The point was made that materials research 

 in connection with the fast breeder reactor is not "open." This 

 remark is interpreted to be an indication of approaching commercial 

 interest. Fusion work is needed mainly as an "insurance policy" and 

 is not to be supported to the detriment of fission research. A German 

 official held similar views. These views imply a descending level of 

 incentive for fusion in Japan, the EC, and the United States and 

 correspondingly different levels of effort. 



There was little evidence of any French purpose or objective that 

 will provide an incentive for more than incidental international 

 cooperation in fusion beyond the EC program. 



Economic Cooperation and Competition in the Long Term 



The long-term economic benefits from fusion are thought to be great, 

 but they certainly cannot be estimated accurately. All three of the 

 world-class programs thus lack quantitative justification for their 

 size and pace. The same long-term feature necessarily puts support 

 for the program in the public sector. The utilities in Europe, as 



