802 



-26- 



politlcal considerations. Moreover, the U.S. embargoed soybean export for a 

 short time In 1974 to stabilize domestic prices, and has embargoed the sale of 

 grain and high technology to the Soviet Union in political protest to the 

 Afghanistan invasion. A Cabinet member of the new American Administration in 

 his first public statement spoke of using American food exports as a foreign 

 policy "weapon" (later retracted to substitute "tool"). 8 



These consequences of resource dependency and of the unequal distribution 

 of resources, are all political and economic in character. That is, the 

 issues arising in the resource area in the near future are concerned with 

 distribution and availability, but not with depletion. In the long-term, the 

 adequacy of resources will be determined by economic, not geological, 

 phenomena, 9 and there is no reason to doubt that the 'industrial system could 

 be sufficiently elastic to cope with long-term changes in the price and 

 availability of materials and energy. 



The short-term vulnerabilities must be met with measures that are largely 

 outside the realm of science and technology directly: stockpiling, political 

 negotiations, pooling arrangements in time of crisis, etc. Conceivably, new 

 R&D for resource exploration, or exploitation of deep seabed minerals, could 

 change the degree of vulnerability, but not likely in a 5-year time horizon. 



In the longer term, science and technology have major roles to play in the 

 development of substitutes; in expanding knowledge of resource exploration, 

 recovery, processing and use; and more generally in contributing to innovation 



^New York Times , December 27, 1980. 

 ^Vogely, p. 17. 



