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198 ANNALS NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 



tion; very large investments are made in this stage and, of course, only a 

 few systems survive into deployment. 



"Global concerns" provide a natural justification for more tightly link- 

 ing the activities of the industrialized nations. Among the current techni- 

 cal topics of unusual urgency would be: climate and water resources; 

 energy and related natural mineral resources; and the broader tasks of 

 achieving a better joint analysis of how to proceed on the longest lead- 

 time activities required for modernizing the third world while fostering 

 reasonable stability. 



Prospects for greater economic competition in the world's trade can 

 not be blinked away. The growing number of "middle tier countries " will 

 become both potential collaborators and stronger competitors with the 

 industrialized nations. One worthwhile step in this complicated pattern 

 would be to arrange for a new set of investments in university-industrial 

 linkages within the private sector, meeting national and international 

 responsibilities that are now drifting toward already overburdened gov- 

 ernmental and intergovernmental institutions. 



Building meaningful cooperation by industrial countries with LDCs 

 will continue to be a major challenge, ultimately determining the degree 

 of peace and progress in the world. There will certainly have to be some 

 accommodations by, and greater respect for, the multinational com- 

 panies from both DCs and LDCs. Taking account of the ways in whicli 

 science and technology actually are diffused internationally, MNCs are 

 essential. At the same time, there will have to be more sober realisni 

 among many developing countries about the likely slow rates of change 

 in achieving their goals. 



A point to emphasize in closing is that we have absolutely urgent needs 

 for new initiatives in policy analysis. We should have much deepe; 

 "cross-national comparisons" among both developed and developing 

 countries, to show the historical roles of technology in modernization. 

 To reach more reliable analysis, we should stimulate a few new centers — 

 preferably on an international basis — that would examine the interac- 

 tions between science/technology policy and economic policy, within 

 the larger international diplomatic context. 



It is of course also true that we need a fresh analysis of the conse 

 quences of SALT II with respect to the longer term prospects for mean- 

 ingful detente, for SALT III, and for actual disarmament. This topic '- 

 now more discussed than studied, and it requires a high priority with re- 

 spect to world-wide trends affecting the independence of many countries 



As a final example of a subject that requires deeper policy-analysis, 

 consider one that might be regarded as too ideological: examining 



