902 



16 



prepare for disruptions in project planning and implementation at 

 UNESCO beginning in early 1985 in view of expected budgetary cutbacks. 

 Although U.S. contributions to UNESCO are not normally due until the 

 beginning of the next fiscal year (October 1, 1985, for Fy-86) , the 

 lack of assurance of interim support until later in 1985 could contri- 

 bute to an environment of uncertainty that will hamper UNESCO opera- 

 tions. Different forms of congressional appropriations will have to be 

 found to respond to this extraordinary situation. There is an urgent 

 need to move ahead in the United States with establishment of a joint 

 governmental and nongovernmental mechanism to cope with the situation 

 both in the short and longer term. 



4. Disruptions in U.S. Scientific Participation . Uncertainties 

 regarding funding will be disruptive to the many U.S. groups partici- 

 pating in ongoing UNESCO science activities. Some reprogramming of 

 nationally available resources will be necessary. With regard to pos- 

 sible losses in access to data and research localities, it is difficult 

 at this stage to make definitive judgments. The situation will depend, 

 in part, on the degree to which U.S. scientists in their personal capa- 

 city would continue to be invited to participate in activities directly 

 under the purview of UNESCO. A decrease in the number of such invita- 

 tions will have an adverse impact on the quality of UNESCO science 

 projects and consequently also on the benefit of such projects to the 

 U.S. scientific community. 



5. Disruptions in the International Research System . A period of 

 uncertainty stemming from withdrawal will be disruptive to international 

 cooperation in science and may strain U.S. scientific relations with 

 peer groups in other countries. U.S. participation in multilateral 

 activities and in the planning of new projects may by affected. Some 

 readjustment and reappraisal of U.S. participation and leadership in 

 international scientific cooperation may occur. 



6. Capabilities of NGOs . Once alternative interim arrangements 

 have been put into place, they will need to be evaluated and assessed 

 in terms of how effectively NGOs are able to handle the new and more 

 substantial responsibilities they may have assumed. It is clear that 

 some NGOs as currently structured will have serious difficulties in 

 carrying out greatly expanded roles. Thus, there will prevail, even 

 in the second half of the decade, considerable uncertainty about how 

 proposed new responsibilities can be matched to the capabilities of 

 existing institutions. 



7. Need for Enhanced U.S. Scientific Community Involvement . Those 

 science programs that involve direct linkages with the concerned pro- 

 fessional communities tend to be the most effective. During the coming 

 months, it will be especially important to maintain and strengthen 

 governmental and nongovernmental interactions, not only in the conduct 

 of present programs, but especially in terms of planning and implemen- 

 tation of future international multilateral science activities. 



