984 



S-30 



U.S. experts in hazard assessment and risk mitigation are frequently 

 utilized and there is a focus on the development of modern equipment 

 and instrumentation. The possible loss in program support due to U.S. 

 withdrawal is about $250,000; if overhead charges are included, the 

 loss may be on the order of $400,000. Given the value of the program, 

 U.S. support of $500,000 is suggested. 



Alternative Option 1 ; Provide the U.S. contribution to program costs 

 (project plus staff), $250,000 through the Funds-in-Trust or donations 

 arrangement, with the remaining amount of U.S. funds, $250,000, for 

 cooperating intergovernmental (e.g., UNDRO) and/or nongovernmental 

 (e.g., lUGS and lUGG) organizations, on the recommendation of a 

 designated U.S. national agent such as the U.S. Geological Survey, 

 possibly with advisory services from the nongovernmental sector. 



Alternative Option 2 ; Invite ICSU and/or lUGS to act as agent for the 

 disbursement of U.S. funds, based on the advice and guidance of a desig- 

 nated U.S. group. Management (i.e., overhead) charges would need to be 

 negotiated at both the national and international level. 



Alternative Option 3 : Provide the totality of funds (S500,000) to a 

 national agent, such as the U.S. Geolgical Survey, to manage, utilizing 

 alternative multilateral organizations as well as bilateral arrangements 

 as appropriate. 



X.2.1 Development of Scientific and Technical Knowledge with a View 

 to a Better Assessment of Natural Hazards to Their Prediction 

 $13 2,2 50 1 - a 



Technical studies with UNDRO? special study of seismic risks 

 with UNDRO (seminars, meetings, field missions); evaluation of 

 earthquake prediction techniques and networks; study of seismo- 

 tectonic synthesis, seismic zoning, and volcanic risk; analysis 

 of historic data on major earthquakes ?nd volcanoes, and floods 

 and droughts; expert training program with International Seis- 

 mological Centre (ISC); a seismology seminar in the Arab States 

 and in S.E. Asia; cooperation with NGOs. 



Comment : The activities within this subprogram are aimed at enhancing 

 scientific knowledge of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic 

 eruptions, floods and landslides, through increased international 

 coordination and data exploitation leading to improved monitoring and 

 prediction capabilities. The program is considered to be of high 

 quality and involves a large number of experts throughout the world. 

 U.S. experts are frequently utilized. The program is of direct benefit 

 to those who live in hazard-prone areas. The opportunity to learn 

 about the causes and effects of hazards, and options for mitigation of 

 risk is important. There is no real alternative organization to UNESCO 

 in this area. Nonetheless, at a minimum, the potential loss of the 

 U.S. contribution to the program costs (about $70,000) should be made 

 available through one of the alternative arrangements, noted above. 



