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GRADUATE STUDENT/POSTDOCTORAL INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE 201 



research experiences in significant numbers. The data are sketchy, al- 

 though there appear to have been in the order of 50-100 M.D. basic 

 researchers in the 1960s, tapering off to essentially zero at the present 

 time. 



The available data on trends in overseas postdoctoral posts must be 

 scrutinized both for what they show and do not show. Reports and 

 presentations frequently use the peak year of 1971 as a base, implying 

 thus a 50 percent decline in the number of new Ph.D.s accepting foreign 

 posts in ensuing years."*" Using estimates of probable distribution of 

 fellows for 1966, 1967, and 1968, Charles Kidd shows that the number 

 of new science and engineering Ph.D.s with postdoctoral appointments 

 abroad may, with fluctuations, be more or less constant when viewed 

 not from this peak period, but over the longer span of years preceding 

 and following 1970-1972.^ Trends over the 1966-1981 period are por- 

 trayed in Figure 3 and Table 4. More importantly, Kidd points out that 

 this relatively constant level conceals increases of about 20 percent in 

 the biological and medical sciences that are offset by declines of about 

 20 percent in the physical sciences and engineering. 



In examining possible causes of the 1970-1972 peak, Kidd refers to 

 the motives, perceptions, and aspirations of new Ph.D.s, particularly 

 those in physical science and engineering, when they received their 

 U.S. degrees more than a decade ago. Significant factors turning their 

 plans toward overseas posts were the sharp decline in federal research 

 funds available per full-time equivalent scientist and engineer as well 

 as the growing scarcity of tenured faculty positions. At the same time 

 during the early 1970s, there was a pull from Western European re- 

 search institutions to invite U.S. physical scientists and engineers to 

 take up postdoctoral research appointments; this situation changed 

 significantly by the end of the 1970s. In contrast to this experience in 

 the physical sciences, Kidd shows that there was virtually no peak in 

 the life sciences during the 1970-1972 period (Figure 3). 



As already noted, the number of new Ph.D.s reporting firm com- 

 mitments for study abroad is an indication of trends, but may be, in 

 fact, about one-half of actual postdoctoral appointments abroad. Fig- 

 ure 4 shows that the percent of prior year's Ph.D.s in science and engi- 

 neering who actually took up postdoctoral appointments abroad de- 

 clined from an order of 5 percent in 1972 to around 2.3 percent in 

 1976. 



In contrast to this rough picture of trends in new Ph.D.s (and 

 M.D.s) taking up foreign appointments leveling down to an order of 2 

 percent at the current period, there is certainly a much larger older 

 group (postdoctoral scientists/senior scientists/persons on sabbati- 

 cals) that one must consider in assessing trends of postdoctoral inter- 



