X. AxALYsis OF Proposed Ten-Year Programs ix Oceanography 



Three separate appraisals, by the National Academy of Sciences 

 Committee on Oceanography, by the Nav}^ and by the Interagency 

 Committee on Oceanograph}', have been made of the degree and 

 m'gency of needs by the United States for a national progi*am in 

 oceanography. All three recommended an immediate acceleration of 

 program. All three studies also brought forth long-range proposals in 

 varying detail outlining the rate at which the present level of effort 

 could be accelerated. 



While these lO-3'ear programs were assembled from a detailed col- 

 lection of project components, a comparison and analj'sis of program 

 content on an item-by-item basis is less significant than the broader 

 goals and means proposed for their accomplishment, particularly in 

 the context of this report related to legislative interests of the Congress. 



In summary, the rate of effort would be increased by a factor of 

 between 3 and 4 during the next lO-3'ear interval. At that time, the 

 annual Federal appropriations would run around $85 million, in 

 contrast to the Fiscal Year 1958 base of about $24 million. Such 

 expansion is deemed possible, however, only if there is a collateral 

 program of shipbuilding to provide an up-to-date fleet of research 

 vessels and other special vehicles vitally necessary for increased ob- 

 servations at sea. During these 10 3'ears, approximately $405 million 

 would be required for capital expenditures, thus increasing the annual 

 funding requirements during the buildup to over $110 million per 

 3-ear. Stimulation of interest on the part of students and qualified 

 scientists ahke to supplement the presently" limited base of man- 

 power was considered equally vital. 



There follows some discussion of the implications of these proposals 

 and of the problems and alternative solutions which have been 

 identified in any program of expansion. 



A. PROBLEMS IN PROGRAM 



Fu'st, how much should the national effort be enlarged? Those 

 stud3'ing the need for oceanic research, both scientists and admmistra- 

 tors, Avould ordinarih' be reluctant to place "quantitative" indices on 

 basic research, much less on rates of acceleration. Nevertheless, the 

 comment is found frequently in the proposals that the activity should 

 be at least doubled. This ma}' have been another way of saying that 

 the increase should be enough to make the necessary difference be- 

 tween the cm'rent rate and that compatible with the projected needs. 

 With sxich specific estimates, it is possible to program the growth on ajar 

 better planned and rational basis than would be possible otherwise, and 

 to avoid the losses which inevitably attend a crash program. 



Those responsible for such planning, however, would be the first 

 to agree that the goal of doubling research activity in 10 3'ears is not 

 a rigid standard that must be invoked regardless of other future 



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