140 OCEAN SCIENCES AND NATIONAL SECURITY 



developments. Even the single objective of gaining a basic knowledge 

 of the ocean more promptly than is possible without such growth car- 

 ries with it the implication that any breakthroughs would be exploited 

 to the fullest, either for reasons of technological gain, with the collat- 

 eral economic or military benefits, or for reason of national prestige 

 which, although a new factor in national planning, has been recognized 

 as a necessary part of om- philosophy of providing for the maximum 

 security of the Nation. 



Although all three proposals use the phraseolog}' "at least doubling", 

 the reader may recognize that details of the proposals entail some- 

 thing larger. 



Consider the rate at which oceanography was growing when the 

 NASCO reports were prepared as an indication of what might be 

 projected to the future: 



Information was obtained from Hiatt's "Directory of Hydrobiological Labora- 

 tories" which was compiled during the fiscal year 1953. As an additional check, 

 an abstract of the comparative information for 1953 and 1958 was sent to the 

 directors of 28 laboratories for which data from both years were available. * * * 

 The laboratories in question listed a total expenditure of about $8 million in 1953 

 and $14 million in 1958, an increase of 76%. * * * Nevertheless, the analysis 

 suggests an inflationary factor of at least 30% and possibly more, and the real 

 growth might therefore be of the order of 30-45% in five years. * * * The present 

 rate of growth is more in keeping with the ability of science to produce new 

 oceanographers and to supply the ship and shore facihties that they require. 

 An increase of 30-45%) in five years is equivalent to 70-110% in ten years. The 

 recommendation for doubling of oceanographic research in the next ten years 

 contained in the first chapter of tliis report therefore seems well within our 

 capabilities and in line with a moderate acceleration of our present growth.^^ 



Thus, doubling the rate of activity over the next 10 years on an 

 absolute basis reflects little more than the present rate of growth for 

 which no special measures to foster expansion would be necessary. 

 In a sense, this viewpoint contradicts other aspects of the tone of 

 urgency in the NASCO recommendations. (It is certainh^ agreed 

 that during the last 5 years when the rate of effort increased, there 

 were virtually no expenditures for capital equipment; so that pleas 

 for increased funds could be justified on the grounds alone that the 

 present fleet cannot accommodate the increased growth.) 



Would the size of oceanographic effort in the United States double 

 on a relative as well as an absolute basis? During the next 10 years, 

 research and development as a broad field of activity is certain to 

 expand. During the 3 fiscal ^'Cars 1958, 1959, 1960, Federal obliga- 

 tions for research and development amounted to $5.9, $7.9, and $8.1 

 billion, respectivelj^^* While trends are difficult to extract from such 

 a limited number of statistics, it may be that the rapid rate of national 

 growth has slowed follow-ing the typical "S-shaped" curve that so 

 often describes some element of human endeavor. Nevertheless, the 

 gross national product has been expanding at an annual rate of about 

 3}^ percent, and the national research and development budgets, both 

 Federal and industrial, have shown a pattern of growing faster. 

 Following these projections, in 10 years one might suppose that, at the 

 very least, the national research budgets would be 75 percent greater 

 than at present. In terms of 1958 dollars, normal expansion by 1970 

 might well double. If that be tlie case, then doubling the oceano- 



«3 NASCO Report, ch. 12, op.cit., p. 8. 



«< "Federal Funds for Science VIII", NSF 59-40, p. 3. 



