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PHYSICS /JD EI^VIRONf'E^T.'^ PREDICTION 



16, During the expanded proepran major enphasis should be on studies of the 

 upper few hundred meters of the surface layer of the ocean and its interaction 

 with the lower atnosphere. Fluxes of heat, radiation, water vapor and momentum 

 across the ocean-atmosphere surface are of xj^^incipal importance in studying 

 the dynamics of both environments. It is clearly to the advantage of both 

 oceanography and meteorclocy that there be close coordination of such programs 

 with those already planned throu^n VfilO (i.e., WW\-/, GARP, etc.), A recommended 

 goal is to improve knowledge and understanding to the point where ocean 

 forecasting for a variety of users can be conducted on a routine and effective 

 basis. 



IT. The expanded program also should include the development of the scientific 

 and engineering basis for the design of an adequa-te monitoring system and, 

 as noted in paragraph T, basic Itr., the Integrated Global Ocean Station 

 System (IGOSS) is considered an integral part of the proesram. 



18. The question of large-scale, jrear-to-year differences in the ocean is an 

 in?)ortant oceanographic and meteorological problem of considerable scientific 

 and aioplied consequence. The effort initially will probably have to be limited 

 to a single ocean basin because of the resources required. Within the finally 

 selected ocean basin routine observations will have to be made from fixed and 

 moving platforms and from satellites; accurate navigation control is also a 

 requirement for such a studi"-. Both routine and special observations should be 

 produced in suitable format to be fed into a vrorldwide meteorological and 

 oceaaographic communications system. 



19. In order to predict successfully, and perhaps modify eventually, oceanic 

 phenomena, it is essential first to ex}5lcre the mean and fluctuating components 

 of dynamic processes in the ocean. Knowledge of the space and time scales of 

 energy-containing processes is conr.iderad a necessary requirement before a 

 large-scale program of observing or monitoring the upper layers of the ocean 

 can be properly designed, /il though moored buoys should form an essential part 



of such studies, they should be supplemented by observations from ships, drifting 

 buoys and satellites. Velocity and transport measurements will have to be by 

 direct metliods, and early consideration must be given to appropriate means for 

 processing end analysis of resulting data. 



20. Within the upper kilometer of the ocean, major currents are responsible 

 for most of the lateral transport of heat, salt, nutrients and other dissolved 

 substances. It would be extremely usef\il to know how the transport of these 

 named currents changes with seasons and over tlie years. Once the general 

 characteristics of flow have been established, fixed current buoys may be 

 required for the monitoring task. Important straits should be instrumented 

 for electrical potential metiiods and an inter-comparison of the cable end 

 free instrioment metnods -ilanned. 



21. Understanding of the meciianisms and rate of formation of deep waters, and 

 their transport and excliange between basins and between oceans is an important 

 element in the overall \inders tan ding of how the ocean works. A basic set of 

 high quality observations of temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and 



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