56 



nii'h'()\ i\(, nii: AJiix ni()\ i>r<>( r.ss / ^1 



Box 1.5 

 Lessons from the Past and Some OppoRTUNrriES for the Future 



Th()uj>li enormously \ isionan.the .scientists and political leaders who set the United States 

 on its post-World War II research and development course could never have foreseen the ex- 

 traordinary results The computer was in its infancy in 1945 and seemed more a research tool 

 than a revolutionary dc\icc that would profoundly affect industry, commerce, the financial 

 world, liovemnient. science, education. communications. entertainment. and socier\' as a whole. 

 .\ccuratc weather forecasiini; covered about a da\ in 1945; reliable 3- and 6-day forecasts, and 

 the 9()-da\ outlooks now relied on by farmers and utility companies. came only with )ears of 

 research and the advent of supercomputers. Microelectronics, with all its implications for 

 space exploration and utilization, national sccurir\, consumer electronics, medicine, and do- 

 mestic and international communications, did not exist — nor did the equally revolutionary' 

 la,scr. ,Vlaterials science, yiven a boost by the war. had yet to benefit from the studies that 

 would yield the new metal alloys, hi^h-strength steels, composite materials, silicon chips, glassy 

 metals, optical fibers, and polymers so vital and so valued in 1995, 



Astronomy meant mostly optical telescopes at war s end. and a.stronomcrs could only dream 

 of the striking images now provided daily b\ the Hubble Space Telescope; the great advances 

 provided by radio, infrared, ultraviolet, \-n\. and gamma-niy astronomy would come only with 

 time. Though an earl\ cosmological \ision of the universes birtii existed, it had yet to win its 

 popular name, "The Hig Hang, Or to gain the theoretical underpinnings and experimental back- 

 ing ihai now make it (he standard model for the cosmos s origin. The Earth's crust was ac- 

 cepteil as a solid shell, not the giant, separate blocks of rock portrayed by the theory of plate 

 lectonics, which came together in the 195()s and I9(i()s and provided earth scientists with a 

 general framework to e\plain ihe cause of most giant earthquakes, why volcanoes exist where 

 they do, the birih of new oceans, and the timeless drifting of the continents around the globe, 

 lew pail! attention to or realized the economic, health, and social implications of a deteriorat- 

 ing en\ironmeni, the loss of biodiversity, or the potential for adverse climate change — vital 

 world issues that researchers would identify, describe, and bring to public attention. 



The personal computer first appeared in the I9~t)s:the explosive growth of the Internet is 

 a 19')nN phenomenon. Electronic mail was until very recently the tool of a narrow slice of the 

 scientific anil lechiiical community. Now. our national .security depends heavily on the u.se of 

 computers, networks, and telecommunications to a.ssess, understand, and respond to poten- 

 tial threats Computer graphics provides the 'vision' to design new materials and buildings, 

 and to model, lor example, the lethal process of an .\IDS (HIV) virus entering a cell and co- 

 opting its functions There is virtualh no industry that is not being transformed by the informa- 

 tion revolution. .\nd \ei. the information revolution is still young and hardly over. 



The remarkable ad\ ances enabled by science and technology during the past 50 years will 

 surely be extended in the next 50 We can see some of the outlines. Information technology, 

 lor example, is alreadv transforming the operations of man> of our basic institutions, offering 

 new wax s to educate our children and contributing new approaches and tools for research in 

 science and technology Less obvious is how a quickh widening range of challenges facing our 

 nation and the world will be addressed. If histon is a guide, the work now under way in 

 universities and in federal and Industrial laboratories will play a vital role. 



Tlte health challenges to the nation arc apparent. The population is aging, and with that 

 the problems of heart disease, cancer, and degenerative illnesses such as Alzheimer s di.sease 

 appear in sharp relief. These illnesses require fundamental understanding not only of the un- 

 derlving biologv but also of effective prevention strategies to delay or block their on.set. The 

 problem of emergent diseases" has gained full force in this decade, from the resurgence of 

 tuberculosis to the appearance of 'jet-age" scourges, such as AIDS and Ebola virus. We can 

 rightlv take comfort in the past victories over polio and smallpox and other infectious diseases. 

 We should not forget, however, that the polio vaccine built on a century of microbiology, that 



continued on next paf^e 



