16 



dustrial wage jobs averaging about $30,000 were replaced by serv- 

 ice sector jobs at one-half to one-third the earnings (see Table 2 in 

 the written testimony). The emplo3rment multipliers of these indus- 

 tries providing service jobs were less than half of those in the wood 

 products industry. Six of eight highly or moderately challenged 

 counties relied most heavily on Federal wood supplies. Challenges 

 are faced increasingly by scores of communities within counties and 

 were not revealed by this study because only county-level data 

 were available. 



Question three: has reduction in wood supply required by the 

 President's forest plan affected the ability of counties to meet these 

 challenges? The President's forest plan, exclusive of court injunc- 

 tions, would reduce Federal sales in the owl region by about 600 

 million board feet, translating into an additional 5,600 jobs. Six al- 

 ready highly challenged counties, including four counties heavily 

 dependent on Federal timber, were projected to lose between two 

 and 20 percent of their total emplo3anent. 



Question four: could recreation and tourism growth help counties 

 meet these challenges? Tourism growth occurred in only one of 15 

 counties facing the challenge of economic revitalization. Ten of the 

 15 challenged counties exhibited tourism employment decline of ten 

 percent or more. Tourism is a poor substitute for family wa^e in- 

 dustrial jobs lost to the decline of the wood producing industries. 

 Work in tourism establishments is generally seasonal, unstable, 

 low paying, lacking in benefits, low skilled, does little to train peo- 

 ple for advancement in careers, and is generally limited to second- 

 ary employment for spouses or primary employment for individ- 

 uals, especially single women, living in poverty. 



Question five: would secondary manufacturing help counties 

 meet these challenges? Secondary manufacturing is generally low- 

 est in counties facing the greatest challenge of economic revitaliza- 

 tion. Table 4 in my written testimony shows the limited potential 

 for secondary manufacturing emplo3rment to substitute for the loss 

 of logging and sawmilling jobs. 



Question six: would allocation of future Federal timber harvest 

 to small businesses help counties meet these challenges? Small 

 mills have been disproportionately impacted by the sudden reduc- 

 tion of Federal timber sales, and those counties most reliant on 

 Federal wood supplies are now most challenged to replace family 

 wage jobs provided by these small mills (exhibited in Table 5). Re- 

 sults from another study show that the wood products industry is 

 a relatively stable source of employment when compared with other 

 manufacturing industries, that employment stability is greatest in 

 small places of work (Figures 1 and 2), and that smaller establish- 

 ments are more stable than larger establishments. 



In summary, counties most reliant on Federal wood supplies are 

 generally the most challenged by the need for economic revitaliza- 

 tion. Tourism is unlikely to be of much help for these counties fac- 

 ing economic challenges. Secondary manufacturing may help some 

 of these challenged counties but will mainly be concentrated near 

 urban areas where transportation modes and markets are acces- 

 sible. And finally, small wood products businesses engaged in pri- 

 mary manufacturing provide the best opportunities for challenged 



