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QUESTION 3 



Has reduction in wood supply required by the President's forest plan 

 affected the ability of counties to meet these challenges? 



This study analyzed the Hkely employment effects of implementing the President's 

 forest plan for the owl region. Sale of wood scheduled under the plan was compared with 

 the annual harvest from federal lands in 1992-93. Results suggest that implementation of 

 the President's plan will reduce federal sales in the owl region by 616.9 million board feet, 

 translating into an additional loss of 5,660 jobs. However, 1994 sales of federal wood 

 were well below levels scheduled by the President's plan and totaled only 140 million 

 board feet. Projected sales for 1995 were even lower. These losses will further detract 

 from efforts to revitalize counties facing economic challenges caused by the loss of wood 

 products jobs and earnings. 



Six counties (Linn, Douglas, Curry, and Lane Counties, Oregon and Skamania and 

 Lewis Counties, Washington) would lose two percent or more of their total employment 

 base under the President's plan. All but one of these counties (Lewis) already face a high 

 to moderate economic challenge in revitalizing their economies. Skamania County would 

 lose over 20 percent of its total employment base, and Linn and EX)uglas would lose 5.1 

 and 4.4 percent, respectively. The remaining counties would lose a little more than two 

 percent 



Further reductions in federal timber harvests are not the only causes for erosion of 

 the economic base in wood-producing counties. Additional losses of employment and 

 employment earnings from implementation of the President's plan will most likely be less 

 than losses originating in reductions of harvest on state, private industrial, and small non- 

 industrial private lands. Harvesting of state lands in Washington State has been reduced by 

 almost two-thirds since 1992 by habitat management planning and other environmental 

 concerns. Private industrial owners have reduced harvesting during this same period as 

 required by implementation of habitat conservation plans and other state and federal 

 environmental laws and regulations. Harvesting opportunities for non-industrial private 

 owners have also been reduced by these same environmental laws and regulations, and 

 may decline in the future as readily available supplies are exhausted by rapid harvesting on 

 lands where opportunities currently exist. 



QUESTION 4 



Could recreation and tourism growth 

 help counties meet these challenges? 



Tourism employment is often recommended as a substitute for declining wood 

 products employment To assess the economic potential for tourism in counties faced with 

 economic challenges, SIC code 80, Hotels and Other Lodging Haces, was selected as the 

 indicator for tourism growth. Previous tourism studies have relied on this industrial group 

 as a reliable criterion for detecting tourism activity (Smith, 1989). Other industrial groups, 

 especially SIC code 58, have been avoided because other factors (e.g., changing lifestyles) 

 are thought to have caused rapid growth in eating establishments and employment. 



The county-level employment and employment earnings data provided by Wilbur 

 Maki Associates was used to classify counties on the basis of growth and decline m 

 employment in hotels and lodging places from 1988-1992. Four categories were created: 

 (1) employment decline of 10 percent or more, (2) nine percent employment decline to nine 



