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percent emfdoyment growth, (3) employment growth of 10 percent or more, and (4) 

 employment growth of 10 percent or more that replaced lost wood producing jobs. The 

 range of nine percent decline to nine percent growth was used because activity in this 

 industry tends to fluctuate with economic cycles, and 10 percent growth or decline was 

 thought to represent changes more enduring than a temporary fluctuation. 



There was tourism growth in only one (Plumas County, California) of the 15 

 counties facing the challenge of economic revitalization. Ten of the 15 challenged counties 

 exhibited tourism employment declme of 10 percent or more. Counties with declining 

 tounsm employment were concentrated in southwest Oregon, coastal Washington, and 

 south central Washington. While Skamania County, Washington, showed decline in 

 tourism employment for the years in which data were available (up to 1992), the opening of 

 Skamania Lodge in 1993 will likely result in its reclassification as a tourism growth county. 



Tourism growth appears to be located in counties with significant natural amenities 

 (e.g., Skamania County, Washington and Hood River County, Oregon), new destination 

 resorts (e.g., Jefferson and Tillamook Counties, Oregon), or urban areas with growing 

 reputations as tourist attractions (e.g., Portland and Seattle). 



County economies are not necessarily improved by growth of tourism industries. 

 Work in tourism establishments is generally seasonal, unstable, low-paying, lacking in 

 benefits, and low-skilled (Smith, 1989). It does little to train people for advancement in 

 careers and is generally limited to secondary employment for spouses or primjuy 

 employment for individuals (especially single women) living in poverty. As such, it is a 

 very poor substitute for the family-wage industrial jobs lost with decline in the wood- 

 producing industries. 



QUESTION 5 



Would secondary manufacturing help counties meet these challenges? 



Secondary (value-added) wood-products manufacturing is widely recommended as 

 a means for creating employment in counties facing the challenge of declining employment 

 and employment earnings in logging <md primary manufacturing. County Business Pattern 

 data for 1991 were compiled by Dr. Paul Polzin to assess the potential for jobs in 

 secondary manufacturing to substitute for jobs in primary manufacturing. Although some 

 disclosure problems may result in an underestimate in rural counties, counts of 

 establishments by county can be used to describe the geographic distribution of secondary 

 manufacturing in the 72-county owl region. 



Counties were classified into five groups based on the percent of the regional total 

 of secondary manufacturing establishments located in a county: ( 1) less than 1 percent, (2) 

 1 to 1.9 percent, (3) 2 to 2.9 percent, (4) 3-3.9 percent, and (5) 4 f)ercent or greater. This 

 scheme for classifying counties is a measure of their relative contribution to total secondary 

 manufacturing activity in the region. 



In all three states, the vast majority of the secondary manufacturing establishments 

 are situated in urban, high population density counties. Previous studies have shown 

 similar results and concluded that rural, resource-producing counties are not the best 

 locations for most secondary manufacturing industries (Polzin, 1994). Value-added 

 manufacturing seems to do best when located close to markets, material supply streams, 

 and transportation nodes. Some activities, such as millwork, doors, veneer, and other 



