Environmental Forecasting Program 



The purpose of the IDOE Environmental Forecasting Program 

 is to provide the scientific base to improve environmental forecast- 

 ing, which requires a repetition of observations, development of 

 realistic (predictive) models, and understanding of physical prin- 

 ciples. The IDOE Program will concentrate on large-scale, long- 

 period phenomena, which can not be easily investigated by single 

 universities or investigators. The projects include: "Climate: Long- 

 range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction" (CLIMAP), a study 

 of ocean circulation during previous climatological regimes that 

 was formerly called the "Paleo-Oceanography Study"; the "Mid- 

 Ocean Dynamics Experiment" (MODE), a study of the contribu- 

 tions of meso-scale eddies to the ocean's circulation; and the 

 "North Pacific Experiment" (NORPAX), a study of long-period, 

 large-scale, ocean and atmosphere interactions. In addition, Geo- 

 chemical Ocean Sections (GEOSECS), a study of deep-ocean dif- 

 fusion and circulation under the IDOE Environmental Quality Pro- 

 gram, and the physical portions of the "Coastal Upwelling Experi- 

 ment" (CUE), which in 1972 became part of the Coastal Upwell- 

 ing Ecosystem Analysis (CUEA) project under the IDOE Living 

 Resources Program, make important contributions to the Environ- 

 mental Forecasting Program. 



These studies will increase our understanding of ocean-atmos- 

 phere interactions and provide a better base for improved extended 

 forecasts of weather over the Eastern North Pacific and North 

 America. Better forecasts will improve planning for construction, 

 farming, marine, and transportation activities. These studies also 

 should produce better estimates of pollutant dispersal; improve 

 fishery prediction; increase the accuracy in forecasting advantageous 

 shipping routes; provide for greater utilization of the oceans as a 

 source of food or a heat sink for man's activities; and enhance our 

 ability to calculate water renewal rates in the deep ocean — with ap- 

 plication to disposal of contaminants, dispersal of nutrients, and 

 development of predictive models of global circulation. 



CLIMATE: LONG-RANGE INVESTIGATION, MAPPING, AND 

 PREDICTION (CLIMAP) 



To understand the mechanism of climatic change, the pattern 

 of change through time must be examined in detail. That is the 

 purpose of the CLIMAP study. 



Of the natural fluctuations in the global environment, few are 

 more significant to human ecology that climatic change. The im- 

 pact of climatic fluctuations is supported by historical records from 

 medieval Iceland and Europe, where during the 13th and 14th 

 centuries deteriorating climatic conditions were marked by great 

 extensions of North Atlantic sea ice, a completely frozen Baltic, 

 crop failures in southern Europe, and extinction of the people in 

 the Greenland colonies. 



Surface oceanic current systems have an important effect on local 

 climate; their changes through time can be more accurately docu- 

 mented by a study of the deep-sea sediments. The Gulf Stream pro- 

 vides an excellent example. It is known that the position of the 

 Stream changes through time; sometimes the Stream is displaced to 

 the north, sometimes to the south. However, it is not known if these 

 fluctuations are in harmony with the major global cycles or if they 

 have a different frequency. 



CLIMAP project scientists will examine changes in current pat- 

 terns and water mass properties in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans 



during the Quaternary. For the ocean areas of investigation, many 

 sediment cores are already available. From these cores, surface 

 oceanic climatic fluctuations associated with glacial and interglacial 

 transitions will be determined. For this purpose, four oceanographic 

 maps will be constructed to show conditions: 



1. 6,000 years ago — the postglacial thermal maximum; 2. 17,000 

 years ago — the last glacial stage; 3. 120,000 years ago — the last 

 interglacial period; and 4. 700,000 years ago — the mid-Pleistocene. 

 Comparable maps for the present time will form the basis for in- 

 terpretation. 



The general research plan consists of: (1) A routine paleon- 

 tological examination of existing cores to determine which are most 

 suitable for the base grid for the paleo-oceanographic study; (2) an 

 acquisition and initial interpretation of geochemical, paleontolog- 

 ical, and sedimentological data on suitable grids for all levels; (3) a 

 multivariate analysis and computer model application to provide 

 interpretive paleo-oceanographic maps for each level (following ex- 

 tension and consolidation of present work on quantitative relation- 

 ships between the oceanic environment and sediment properties); 

 and (4) an interpretation of study results in close coordination 

 with ongoing examination of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores, 

 which yield critical information about high-latitude glacial and in- 

 terglacial climates and their effects on the temperature and salinity 

 of bottom and surface ocean waters. 



A chart depicting the sea-surface temperature for the North At- 

 lantic 17,000 years ago is being completed, and a corresponding 

 chart for the South Atlantic is scheduled to be completed later. 



The CLIMAP study contains the following projects: 



Organization 



Brown University 

 Columbia University 

 Oregon State University 



University of Miami 



Investigator Project 



J. Imbrle Paleo-Oceanographic Studies of Late 



1. D. Hays Quaternary Ocean Circulation Cli- 



T. C. Moore, Jr. mate in the North Atlantic and 



Pacific Oceans. 

 C. Emiliani High Resolution Study of Environ- 



mental Changes, During the Late 

 Pleistocene Period and Recent 

 Times. 



MID-OCEAN DYNAMICS EXPERIMENT (MODE) 



The purpose of MODE is to establish the dynamics and statistics 

 of mesoscale motions, their energy sources, and their role in the 

 general circulation. It is estimated that mesoscale eddies, if they are 

 everywhere present, would contain at least as much kinetic energy 

 as the main ocean circulation and possibly 10 times more. The 

 origin, quantity, behavior, and estimation of eddie kinetic energy 

 are being studied by those who are devising numerical models. It 

 is known that such eddies exist in the atmosphere and that their 

 kinetic energy content is comparable to that of the mean atmos- 

 pheric flow and must be properly taken into account for successful 

 numerical simulation. Such knowledge may be even more important 

 in modeling oceans. MODE consists of a continuing theoretical ef- 

 fort as well as three field experiments — MODE-O, MODE-I, and 

 (possibly) MODE-II. The site chosen for the first two field experi- 

 ments is a small area 400 km. in diameter and 5 km. deep near the 

 Tropic of Cancer, south of Bermuda. 



