HIGHLIGHTS OF PAST YEAR'S 

 PROGRAM 



The unseasonably cold winter of 1976 and 1977 in the Eastern United 

 States and the near-drought conditions in the Midwest during the summer 

 of 1976 and on the west coast during the winter of 1977 have increased our 

 awareness of the role of weather and climate in our lives. IDOE programs 

 continue to advance our understanding of weather and climatic changes. 



In the North Pacific Experiment (NORPAX), scientists have continued 

 their efforts to link large areas of unusually warm or cold sea-surface waters 

 in the North Pacific to seasonal weather patterns over the United States. One 

 aspect of these studies involved efforts made by Jerome Namias of the 

 Scripps Institution of Oceanography to forecast these patterns 3 months in 

 advance. In spring 1976, he correctly predicted the warm, dry weather in the 

 North Central States and the cool, wet weather in the Pacific Northwest during 

 that summer. These forecasts suggest that the oceans play a pivotal role 

 in shaping seasonal weather patterns, and that the ability to predict these 

 patterns will depend on the extent to which researchers can refine their 

 understanding of air-sea interactions. 



On a much longer-term basis, scientists in the Climate, Long-range 

 Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) program have used fossils 

 captured in deep-sea sediment cores to describe the main features of the 

 global environment 18,000 years ago. Drawing on this data, they found that 

 changes in the distribution of solar radiation caused by changes in the path 

 of the Earth's orbit, its tilt, and wobble are the fundamental causes of the 

 waxing and waning of ice ages during the last 500,000 years. Although these 

 changes are relatively small, they produce major climatic changes. Ignoring 

 the possible effect of man-made influences, the data indicate a coming, 

 extensive glaciation period for the Northern Hemisphere over the next few 

 thousand years. 



To document the theory that changes in the Earth's orbit cause global 

 climatic changes, CLIMAP scientists studied variations in the geochemistry 

 and abundance of microorganisms preserved in deep-sea cores. These data 

 were analyzed statistically to determine their dominant cycles in the core. 

 The results showed that these are cycles of 21,000 years, 42,000 years, and 

 100,000 years-the same as the cycles of variations in the Earth's tilt, wobble, 

 and path around the sun. 



There were several major field operations during the past year. The 

 Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems Analysis (CUEA) program, a major interna- 

 tional effort to understand the forces driving the highly productive coastal 

 upwelling areas, mounted its sixth and final field experiment, JOINT-II, in 

 spring 1977. JOINT-II investigations were carried out in an area about 100 

 by 100 km off the coast of Peru, between Pisco and San Juan. During the 

 final phase, observations were made from seven U.S. and Peruvian research 

 vessels, aircraft, moored current meters, coastal meteorological stations, and 

 satellites. The results will be given in next year's report. 



Also in early 1977, scientists supported by the Seabed Assessment Pro- 

 gram used the submersible ALVIN to dive over 3,000 m below the surface 

 of the Pacific Ocean to explore and sample eruptions of superheated, metal- 

 rich water from the sea floor. They worked in a portion of the Galapagos Rift, 

 350 km northeast of the Galapagos Islands and 800 km west of Ecuador. The 

 area is on an ocean spreading center or boundary between two sections, 

 or plates, of the Earth's crust. Molten materials flow up from the interior 

 of the Earth through the cracks between the plates, forming new crust and 

 forcing additional sea-floor spreading-and sometimes earthquakes. Data 

 from the dives promise to shed some light on the way in which metal-rich, 



