The Theoretical Program: Elements and Studies 



Close scientific cooperation between theoreticians and experimenta- 

 lists is essential to a successful investigation of the nature of the meso- 

 scale motions and to progress towards an understanding of their dynamic 

 interrelationships. The development and application of numerical models 

 is of utmost importance to several aspects of the project: the design of 

 specifics of the experiment, the evaluation of the meaningfulness of types 

 of data and sampling rates, the development of mapping techniques, 

 numerical experimentation, and investigation of dynamical hypotheses. 

 Numerical models are the essential tool to be used in providing the feed- 

 back between theoretical ideas and the design and interpretation of the 

 field experiment. The theoretical program must necessarily be fluid and 

 evolve with the insights gained as the entire MODE-I project develops. 



A computer mapping program which is under development will result 

 initially in five-day mean maps of current and integral density anomaly at 

 several levels. This program provides an important basis for initial input 

 of theoretical concepts into the design of the field program and will be 

 used in the final interpretation of the data in terms of kinematical hy- 

 potheses. Also under development are a 64x64 barotropic numerical 

 model for the evaluation of topographic sites, and a quasi-geostrophic 

 32x16 eight-level baroclinic model for kinematical and dynamical studies. 



Any kinematical study necessarily parameterizes the details of 

 the dynamics of the motions. To exploit the MODE-I data fully and to 

 begin to understand the energy source (s) of the eddies, their interactions, 



and their role in the general circulation, dynamical studies of mesoscale 33 



waves, eddies, and turbulence are needed. 



COASTAL UPWELLING EXPERIMENT (CUE) 



A second area of emphasis within the Environmental Forecasting 

 Program is the study of upwelling. The International Decade of Ocean 

 Exploration is sponsoring a major field project to study coastal upwelling 

 off the coast of Orgeon in mid-1972. CUE-I (Coastal Upwelling Experi- 

 ment, Phase-I), designed in close coordination with numerical models and 

 theoretical hypotheses, is an intensive, detailed field study of the physical 

 dynamics of the natural process by which subsurface cold, nutrient-rich 

 water is raised to the ocean surface near the coast in response to favorable 

 winds. 



The objective is to gain an understanding of the time and space 

 scales of coastal upwelling and to develop ability to estimate the speeds 

 and directions of water flow in the upwelling zone and the distribution 

 of chemical substances and biological organisms that move with the 

 waters. 



Progress in both the theory and the measurement of upwelling proc- 

 esses over the past few years has reached the point where a concerted 

 scientific research effort may make it possible to predict upwelling and 

 to understand the processes taking place within the food chain. It will 

 surely result in an improvement of man's use of the oceans as a source 

 of food. CUE-I is seen as the first step toward achieving that predictive 

 capability. 



