Methodology and Operations 



These studies proceed by formulating a set 

 of working hypotheses to be tested. For ex- 

 ample, consider two general hypotheses of the 

 type that may account for large-scale ocean- 

 atmosphere fluctuations over the North Pacific 

 Ocean. 



Hypothesis I: That major fluctuations in the 

 central Pacific are induced by air/sea inter- 

 actions occurring in the equatorial regions. 



Hypothesis II (the reverse of hypothesis I): 

 Cycles observed in equatorial regions are ex- 

 plained in terms of central North Pacific phe- 

 nomena; these latter events, the ones which 

 affect North American weather, are induced 

 primarily by "local" mechanisms. 



Each hypothesis has incorporated a number 

 of lesser conjectures. However, the first job 

 in verifying either hypothesis is to determine 

 experimentally the nature of the interaction 

 between equatorial and mid-latitude systems. 

 This requires a determination of the dominant 

 processes responsible for the energy and mo- 

 mentum exchange in the North Pacific Basin; 

 the monitoring of important regions and de- 

 termination of the time histories of the major 

 ocean and atmosphere systems in the North 

 Pacific Basin; and the measurement (if pos- 

 sible) or derivation of the energy and mo- 

 mentum exchanges between the individual 

 systems and/or regions. The experiment in- 

 volves four major operational phases. Phases 

 I and II will take approximately one and one- 

 half years and involve development of theory 

 (numerical models), test and development of 

 skeleton data-gathering and scientific support 

 systems. Based on the results and knowledge 

 gained during Phases I and II, the data gather- 

 ing network will be optimized during Phase III. 

 Phase IV will involve operation of the data 

 gathering system and analysis of incoming 

 data. It should be emphasized that scientific 

 research on all aspects of the problem is car- 

 ried out continuously during all four phases. 



Program Management 



Much of the scientific direction and plan- 

 ning of the project is carried by the Co- 

 Principal Investigators' Panel, which consists 

 of the scientists actively doing research within 

 NORPAX. The Panel's main responsibility is 

 to help formulate the general scientific aspects 



of the overall program, with particular em- 

 phasis on each Principal Investigator's indi- 

 vidual area of interest and expertise. Equally 

 important areas for their attention will be the 

 composition and balance of the main program 

 and determination of NORPAX data needs. A 

 Scientific Advisory Panel, composed of scien- 

 tists not actively doing research in this proj- 

 ect, has been established. It critically reviews 

 the plans, direction of effort and past perfor- 

 mance of the project and advises the funding 

 agencies as well as the project participants. 



For the North Pacific Experiment to be truly 

 successful, a commitment of resources beyond 

 those of ONR/NSF and the United States will 

 be necessary. Scientists of other nationalities 

 are invited to bring the resources of their 

 countries to bear on aspects of the major sci- 

 entific objective. Within the U.S. one of the 

 NORPAX project goals is to establish appro- 

 priate working relationships with other gov- 

 ernmental groups. 



PROGRAM: 

 CLIMAP 



Objectives 



Research associated with the third major 

 project in the Environmental Forecasting Pro- 

 gram focuses on the description and under- 

 standing of climatic changes over the last 

 700,000 years. An accurate definition of these 

 changes over such a time scale is mandatory 

 if scientists are to understand the transition 

 between what are currently considered the 

 two stable states of global climate, the ice age 

 and the temperate age. By comparing an ac- 

 curate description of this transition to that 

 predicted by models of global climate, a better 

 understanding of the mechanisms of climatic 

 change will be achieved. The CLIMAP project 

 should shed light on such basic questions as 

 whether changes in climate are due to fluctua- 

 tions in solar radiation, or whether they are 

 caused by changes in the earth's hydrosphere. 

 A thorough understanding of climatic changes 

 is necessary if we are to comprehend our pres- 

 ent place in the natural cycle. Moreover, such 

 knowledge is important in order to assess and 

 to anticipate the effects of man's activities on 

 the global environment. 



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