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Conducting state-of-the-art research on the oceans is a daunting challenge, not 

 only because of the sheer size and physical complexity of the two-thirds of the 

 earth's surface that comprise the oceans, but because the research requires 

 ocean-going platforms equipped with scientific instruments that are capable of 

 operating in some of the most severe environmental conditions imaginable. The 

 potential pay-offs from this research, both in terms of advancing scientific 

 understanding and in potential economic benefits are enormous. Let me give 

 you a few examples. 



Ocean fishermen ~ and the coastal communities that are economically 

 dependent on their success ~ are subject to huge fluctuations in commercial fish 

 stocks. Some years yield record catches, but these are often followed by 

 periods of virtual absence of certain species of commercial fish. A common 

 sense interpretation of these cycles blames the scarcity of fish in the lean years 

 on overfishing during the boom part of the cycle. 



Sedimentary records from the ocean floor, however, provide data going back 

 hundreds, even thousands of years that show "boom-and-bust" cycles in fish 

 populations. This strongly suggests that natural environmental variability is an 

 important factor in fish populations. This cyclic variability can vary from season 

 to season, or it may vary across decades or more. 



The reasons for the cyclic variability are complex, but are probably tied to the 

 reproduction strategies of fish. Most fish produce thousands or even millions of 

 offspring per adult in each breeding cycle. The vast majority of these offspring 

 perish due to predation, harsh environmental conditions, and starvation. If only 

 one percent of a million eggs spawned by a single female survive to adulthood, 

 the adult population would increase five-thousand fold! 



Understanding and predicting the natural fishenes fluctuations will require 

 incorporating biological data into the developing physical models of ocean 

 activity. This, in turn will require tapping into the growing capability of 

 supercomputers to handle massive amounts of data, improved technological 

 innovation in environmental sampling, and the training of graduate students in 

 the use of emerging research techniques. Understanding the cycles of 

 commercial fish populations is in one sense only a byproduct of the basic 

 research that NSF supports. But as the Federal agency supports research and 

 education in each scientific discipline. NSF has an additional responsibility of 

 connecting research to problem areas of national interest. 



Let me offer another example One of the most spectacular results of the slow 

 drift of the continents is found along the mid-ocean ridge system. Heat that is 

 transferred to the ocean from hot, fractured volcanic rock along the mid-ocean 

 ridge has an important impact on the chemistry of the oceans and may have 

 significant effects on their biological productivity as well. 



