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 SCRIPPS SCIENTISTS PREDICT NEXT EL NINO 



The El Niflo of 1982-83 was devastating worldwide-torrential rains in California 

 destroyed crops and damaged homes, drought in Australia fueled widespread 

 wildfires, tens of thousands of starved sea birds littered tropical islands, tons of dead 

 fish washed up along the coast of Peru. If a Scripps Institution of Oceanography 

 experimental climate forecast is correct, we could be headed for another El Nino in 

 the winter of 1996-97. 



El Nifto is a periodic climatic condition that wamns the Pacific Ocean surface 

 temperatvires along a broad band of the equator and shifts vdnd patterns that cover a 

 qucirter of the globe. Among the greatest climatic events of the century, the 1982-83 

 El Nifto wreaked havoc around the Pacific Rim, causing $13 billion in damage. 



Tim Bamett leads a research effort at Scripps that utilizes global envirorunental data 

 and supercomputer capabilities to develop models for forecasting El Niftos. The 

 Scripps model is calling for a moderate to severe El Niflo for winter 1996-97. 

 According to Bamett, the Scripps prediction is almost outside the range of past 

 occurrences, so the magnitude of the El Niflo is uncertain. 'Tf it turns out to be as 

 massive as the experimental model shows, it will rival the global impacts of 1982- 

 1983," he said. "But at this time it is premature to rely on these rather astounding 

 forecasts, because our models are still really research tools." 



Reliable forecasting has developed in just the past few years. The major factor that 

 made the difference was intensified data-gathering in the tropical and central Pacific. 

 During the past decade, more than a dozen countries invested in large-scale research 

 programs aimed at understanding how the ocean and atmosphere interact to 

 produce El Niftos. 



This worldwride investment should have a major pay-off. The successful prediction 

 of seasonal climate variations six to 12 months in advance could save the U.S. 

 billions of dollars in agriculture, transportation, and energy industries alone. For 

 example, climate fluctuations can change production of the world's major crops by 

 as much as 20% in any year. Furthermore, significant savings to the energy and 

 transportation sectors can be realized with advanced warning of freezing conditions 

 in the Nation's waterways. The advantage to having an El Nifto forecast a year in 

 advance is that people and governments can consider alternatives for allocating 

 resources, energy policies, and agricultural planning that would mirumize the El 

 Nifto's impact. 



SCRIPPS INSTITUTION OF OCEANOGRAPHY 

 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO 



