475 



HUMAN, PHYSICAL, AND FISCAL RESOURCES 1^7 



the same percentage of the total labor-months for WOCE scien- 

 tists and postdocs should be valid for JGOFS, then JGOFS will 

 require an estimated 4,300 labor-months (0.3 x 14,400) in this 

 decade. The Ridge Inter-Disciplinary Global Experiment (RIDGE) 

 office estimates it needs 4,000 labor-months over the 1990-2000 

 decade, and the Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) 

 program has estimated 6,600 labor-months at the PI and postdoctoral 

 levels. If 6 labor-months per labor-year are assumed, equal annual 

 effort over the decade, and full program funding are assumed, 

 approximately 300 Ph.D.s will be required to carry out WOCE, 

 JGOFS, GLOBEC, and RIDGE. Of these, 100 will be at the postdoctoral 

 level. If only 50 percent of the average oceanographer's labor- 

 months are available for research, about 22 percent of the 1990 

 academic oceanographer pool would be needed for these four pro- 

 grams, if they are fully funded. 



Answering Specific Questions 



How many Ph.D. -level oceanogiaphers are there and at what 

 rate has the number of Ph.D. -level ocean scientists changed over 

 timel According to the OSB survey, there were 1,674 academic 

 oceanographers and 516 federal oceanographers in 1990. The NSF 

 survey (1989) estimated 1,354 academic oceanographers, 453 fed- 

 erally employed oceanographers, and 653 Ph.D. -level oceanogra- 

 phers in other sectors. 



The growth rate in the number of Ph.D. -level oceanographers 

 slowed from the 1970s to the 1980s. Average annual growth rates 

 for the pool of academic oceanographers decreased from 4.7 to 4.0 

 percent according to NSF surveys, and from 6.4 to 2.6 percent 

 according to the OSB survey. The slowing of growth was even 

 more evident for the federal government. 



How many ocean science doctorates are produced annually^ 

 The JOI data show that approximately 126 oceanography Ph.D.s 

 were awarded from JOI institutions in 1991, which is the largest 

 number in any year for which data are available. 



What is the present age profile of oceanographers in academia 

 and the federal government, and has it changed over timel The 

 OSB survey measured a median age in the 40- to 50-year-old bracket 

 for both academic and federally employed oceanographers. The 

 JOI faculty age distribution shows a median of approximately 44 

 years. The median age of the field has increased over the past 20 

 years from the 35- to 39-year-old bracket to the 40- to 44-year-old 

 bracket, according to the NSF survey. In addition, the median age 



