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154 OCEANOGRAPHY IN THE NEXT DECADE 



and the prediction of future climate. Relatively realistic multidecadal 

 simulations of the North Atlantic, the Southern Ocean, and the 

 world ocean have recently been carried out. The results of these 

 experiments are being analyzed by numerous groups to aid in un- 

 derstanding the ocean general circulation (e.g., Boning et al., 1991; 

 Semtner and Chervin, 1992). Data collected by comprehensive 

 field programs such as WOCE and TOGA can be interpreted bet- 

 ter through the use of realistic models, and field data provide 

 essential tests for the models. WOCE is sponsoring a community 

 modeling effort whereby different models of global circulation are 

 compared. Overall scientific progress is maximized by the inter- 

 action of models and observations. 



Future progress in modeling will involve new techniques and 

 significantly faster computers to conduct simulations with more 

 realistic hydrodynamics, improved resolution of eddies, longer time 

 integration, and more testing of methods of handling subgrid-scale 

 variables. 



Technological advances will probably enhance ocean modeling 

 more than changes in methodology. Computers are expected to 

 attain speeds in excess of one trillion floating-point operations 

 per second (a teraflop) before the year 2000. This thousandfold 

 improvement over computers of 1990 will allow major improve- 

 ments in simulation capability, such that realistic global models 

 might be achieved. Their maximal use will require the develop- 

 ment of highly parallel algorithms. Because most ocean models 

 are formulated in terms of local space-time processes, they should 

 be easily implemented on massively parallel computers. 



The computer and communications requirements for archiving, 

 analyzing, and visualizing the output of eddy-resolving basin- to 

 global-scale models are vast. Ongoing federal programs in high- 

 performance computing should help to develop some of the neces- 

 sary resources. Ocean modeling was highlighted as one applica- 

 tion of high-performance computing in the interagency Federal 

 Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology 

 supplement to the president's budget for fiscal year 1993 {FCCSET; 

 1992). Also, large observational programs are critical because ba- 

 sin- to global-scale, long-term ocean data sets are required to ini- 

 tiate and validate ocean models. 



FISCAL RESOURCES 



Information on oceanographic research funding in the United 

 States for the 11 fiscal years from 1982 to 1992 is compiled here. 



