Oceanography -The Ten Years Ahead 



and lead to the development of new resources. 

 For example, a decision to investigate the oceanic 

 circulation directly through current measure- 

 ments rather than indirectly through density 

 determinations would have profound consequen- 

 ces in terms of productivity for a given budget. A 

 reinvestment of some fraction of research funds 

 for training and education of oceanographers 

 expands the future capability. Some of the options 

 which would become available to oceanography 

 through future budgets are thus appropriate to 

 consider in a long-range plan. Conversely, some of 

 the presently planned opportunities which would 

 be lost in the event of restricted growth in sup- 

 port can also be examined. Exploration of alter- 

 natives and their potential value can minimize un- 

 dertaking or perpetuating those with less promise 

 and undesirably high deferrefd costs. 



A long-range plan can also take explicit account 

 of uncertainty. Uncertainty in planning is of two 

 kinds. The first is uncertainty which can be elim- 

 inated by one's own efforts. For example, in the 

 question of current meter versus density investiga- 

 tions of the oceanic circulation there seems to be 

 considerable uncertainty about the reliability of 

 the buoyed meters. Also, not enough is known 

 about the effects of other physical processes on 

 variations in the current velocity to determine 

 what kind of a network of observing points and 

 intervals would be required to filter out unwanted 

 variations and reveal those due to the process un- 

 der study. What is known suggests that the veloc- 

 ity network would have to be much tighter than a 

 density determination network yielding the same 

 amount of information. Yet the density technique, 

 although dealing with a less "noisy" spectrum 

 than the velocity measurement technique, has the 

 drawback that is difficult to establish absolute 

 rather than merely relative current motion. The 

 limitations in the usefulness of the present tech- 

 nique on the one hand and uncertainties about the 

 technical and economic feasibility of the proposed 

 technique on the other suggest that a choice be- 

 tween the two be postponed pending the results 

 of an effort to remove this uncertainty. It is the 

 function of a long-range plan to call attention to 

 the desirability of such efforts. 



The second kind of uncertainty is inherent not 

 so much in the state-of-the-art as in the nature of 

 the future. The outcome of the effort to establish 

 the feasibility of direct current measurements by 

 fixed buoys throughout the ocean cannot be pre- 

 dicted. Yet some of the consequence, if the effort 



is successful, can be foreseen. Agreements must 

 be reached with regard to legal responsibilities and 

 rights of the sponsoring nation; frequency alloca- 

 tions must f>e made so thai radio beacons and 

 lights do not interfere with operations of ships at 

 sea, etc. Dealing with this kind of uncertainty re- 

 quires maintaining programs which will enable un- 

 certain or even unexpected developments to be ex- 

 ploited if they materialize. Similarly, if the buoyed 

 meter technique remains either technically or 

 logistically infeasible, such other developments as 

 constant density floats should be supported as in- 

 surance against the failure of alternatives. In- 

 surance is perhaps the key word in programs to be 

 designed in the face of this tyjje of uncertainty, 

 insurance against both success and failure. 



The goals, capabilities, and programs develojaed 

 in this plan can advance the cause of other federal 

 committees and study groups concerned with re- 

 lated problems. The Council's Water Research 

 Committee, for example, is one; its Interdepart- 

 mental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences is an- 

 other. The plan attempts to point out where this is 

 the case and also acknowledges where the converse 

 is true. Similarly, international organizations such 

 as the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commis- 

 sion and the International Hydrographic Bureau 

 provide a framework for mutually valuable coor- 

 dinated activity. 



In this regard it must be realized that we are not 

 the only nation engaged in oceanography, al- 

 though we may be carrying out as much as a quar- 

 ter of the total world program. This plan should 

 therefore provide comparisons with the programs 

 of others as a basis for estimating relative rates 

 of progress and obtaining insights into national 

 objectives in oceanography elsewhere. 



Revisions in this plan must be contemplated as 

 time and effort reveal the answers to matters 

 which are now assumptions or opinions. There- 

 fore, those with executive authority should regard 

 it as a guide, not a blueprint, for action. They 

 should anticipate that their decisions as well as 

 unforeseen happenings will of necessity modify 

 the future anticipated here, and that the new 

 knowledge which results will provide the basis for 

 a new plan to exploit the new opportunities to be 

 revealed by the passage of time. 



Finally, this plan calls attention to its own inad- 

 equacies and proposes measures for removing 

 present organizational obstacles to better planning 

 in the future. 



