Chapter IV 

 CAPABIUTIES AND SYSTEMS TO SUPPORT OCEANOGRAPHIC GOALS 



The size and scope of the overall program is 

 based on an estimated growth in funding which 

 averages about 10 percent per year, but which 

 tapers from about 20 percent, from FY 1963 to 

 FY 1964, to only about 7 percent in FY 1972. Ex- 

 penditures corresponding to this expansion thus 

 would increase from $123 million in FY 1963 to 

 about $350 million in FY 1972, with a total over 

 the decade of $2.3 billion. It should be emphasized, 

 incidentally, that this plan does not represent 

 growth over and above that which would be pro- 

 jected by the individual agencies in its absence. 

 Rather, it is a simple statement of superposed 

 needs, goals, and programs for their achievement, 

 modulated by the act of agencies planning 

 together. 



This rate of growth, incidentally, is slightly 

 greater than that estimated for expansion in feder- 

 al support over the next decade of all scientific 

 fields and disciplines. The annual expenditures 

 for FY 1963 of about $12.4 billion- are projected 

 to grow to about $28 billion in FY 1972, by a fac- 

 tor of about 2.2. Expenditures in oceanography 

 are estimated to grow by a factor of 2.5. 



Whatever the assumed growth rate, it is essen- 

 tial to evaluate the compatibility between pro- 

 jected funds, facilities, and manpower. For plan- 

 ning purposes, it has been assumed that manpower 

 in oceanographic research will increase at a rate of 

 9 percent per year, from a present work force of 

 2700 scientists to over 6000 in 1972. This figure 

 is to be compared with an annual increase across 

 the board in all disciplines (from education, train- 

 ing, field switching, etc.) that will average about 

 7 percent annually, for the decade. Thus, the plan 

 anticipates a growth rate of participants in this 

 field somewhat faster than the average for all 

 fields; this is considered reasonable in light of the 

 small base from which growth extends — oceanog- 

 raphy now employs only 0.6 percent of all scien- 

 tists and engineers engaged in research and devel- 

 opment. The main problem in satisfying manpower 

 requirements will arise out of the fact that the field 

 should grow fastest during the first part of the next 

 decade, whereas the production from universities 

 will be greatest toward the end of the decade. 

 Some temporary imbalances are bound to arise. 



perhaps to be met with the transition to greater 

 emphasis on automation. 



To take account both of inflation and the more 

 sophisticated and expensive instrumentation and 

 operations expected of the future, an annual in- 

 crease of about 15 percent in the direct dollar 

 cost of supporting each scientist has been assumed. 

 (Since 1940, the cost per technical man year in all 

 sciences has increased at an annual rate of about 

 1 1 percent.) Thus, research, instrumentation, and 

 ship operations cost about $65 million in 1963. 

 The comparable figure for 1972 is about $230 

 million. The number of ships in the oceanographic 

 fleet is arbitrarily planned to increase in the same 

 proportion as the number of scientists; that is, by 

 a factor somewhat in excess of two. But whether in 

 fact the capability is augmented solely by ships, 

 or by such devices as unmanned buoys remains to 

 be determined by research itself. The amount to 

 be invested in facilities is similarly related to the 

 augmentation required in the current plant to 

 accommodate the increased work force and their 

 activities and assumes greater increase in size of 

 individual laboratories than in their numbers. 



It is not possible to justify the allocation of this 

 overall program among the goals and agencies by 

 a similarly quantitative argument. The situation is 

 more complex, depending as it must on where 

 each agency starts as well as where it wishes to go, 

 and most particularly on the nature of the pro- 

 grams which it is conducting. 



To see why judgment must supplement analy- 

 sis in determining the allocation of eff^ort among 

 agencies and programs, it should be kept in mind 

 that many of the programs in oceanography are 

 in essence largely determined by the questions 

 posed for them to answer. 



Such programs, and there are many, cannot be 

 confidently assigned to the support of any particu- 

 lar goal nor even prorated among them. For this 

 reason much of the accounting in this chapter, and 

 through the entire report, has been necessarily 

 vague. Furthermore, in the interests of brevity as 

 well as clarity, a discussion of details has generally 

 been omitted. What remains, though approximate, 

 is believed sufficiently accurate to show major fea- 

 tures, general relationships, and matters of balance 



23 



