Chapter VII 

 PROGRAM SUMMARY AND EVALUATION 



The national plan in oceanography for the next 

 decade is in its gross features an extension of the 

 trend established during the last five. Yet in many 

 ways, it also represents something new. 



What is new is hard to measure since it is pre- 

 cisely what is most uncertain. It includes continu- 

 ously recording instruments which will permit sur- 

 vey ships to make measurements under way, new 

 submersibles for exploring the ocean at all depths, 

 new buoy systems for quasi-permanent installation 

 over great areas and new satellites for interro- 

 gating them and relaying their stored up data to 

 shore stations for analysis, new forecasting systems 

 for the major oceanic variables of interest to fish- 

 eries and to shipping as well as to scientists, new 

 ways of mining the ocean floor, new ways of hunt- 

 ing, herding, achievement of an underwater pest 

 control (through interference with the food chain), 

 and even cultivating fish, and perhaps even a new 

 habitat for workers in underwater laboratories and 

 communities. These are new tools on the one hand 

 and new applications on the other. What is new, in 

 other words, is the coming technology. What this 

 plan attempts to provide, therefore, is an oceano- 

 graphic establishment of men, ships, and facilities 

 and a program of research and development 

 which is ready and able to capitalize on whatever 

 may materialize out of the coming technology and 

 to apply it to the furthering of our national goals. 



The establishment which is being planned can 

 best be seen in graphical form. Figure 5 shows the 

 budget trend which is continued over the next ten 

 years. The national budget of under $10 million 

 in 1953 represents the relatively small effort de- 

 voted to the field until very recently. In 1958, it 

 had increased only $20 million. The increase from 

 that point on has been at a rate of nearly $100 mil- 

 lion in five years and projecting this into the future 

 brings the overall annual figure to about $350 

 million by 1972. 



Some changes in the way the budget is allocated, 

 however, are expected to take place during the 

 decade. Figure 6 shows the 1963 allocation, both 

 by goal and by agency, and Figure 7 shows the pro- 

 jection for 1972. Most evident is the great expan- 

 sion in the portion of the effort which supports 

 basic science. It rises from some 43 percent of the 

 budget today to about 57 percent in 1972. The 



support for defense has decreased in percentage 

 from 44 percent to 32 percent while the effort put 

 into resource and health management in the world 

 ocean has increased from 15 percent to 24 percent. 

 The oceanographic fleet is expected to change as 

 is shown in Figure 8. There are 76 ships in it today. 

 If the projections of this plan materialize, there 

 should be over 120 by 1972. In addition, there 

 may be a fleet of six to eight submersibles capable 

 of exploring all depths of the oceans. 



The major marine laboratories, of which there 

 are now 63, should have grown to some 85 by 1972 

 as shown in Figure 9. The 26 which are operated 

 privately today should have been joined by another 

 10 to total 36 by this time while government labo- 

 ratories are expected to increase in number from 

 37 to 49. 



With these tools we should be able to make ma- 

 jor advances in our basic understanding of the 

 oceans, and the next decade is expected to see a 

 great improvement in our ability to forecast and 

 use oceanographic conditions for military advan- 

 tage and to increase the yield of fish which the sea 

 contains. With international cooperation a good 

 start should have been made in surveying the 

 oceans and their basins and in mapping the dis- 

 tribution of major properties. Most of the mineral 

 resources on and under the continental shelves 

 should have been located and assayed. 



At least, that is the plan. How can the plan itself 

 be evaluated? The terms for such an evaluation 

 were suggested in Chapter I. They can be summar- 

 ized in the following questions: 

 Has the plan been able to avoid — 

 duplication and waste, 

 overlooking opportunities for new joint 

 enterprises made possible by centralized 

 planning, and 

 inconsistency between goals, programs, and 

 resources? 

 Does the plan — 

 justify the balance of effort among the vari- 

 ous goals, 

 show the long lead-time items in perspective, 



both as to requirements and worth, 

 indicate major possibilities as yet uncertain 

 but worth working for. 



42 



