Program Summary and Evaluation 



43 



point out prerequisites for success likely to 

 be overlooked as well as important alterna- 

 tives which should be supported as insur- 

 ance against failure of major efforts, 

 provide a comparison with like efforts abroad, 



and 

 criticize its own shortcomings and indicate the 

 remedy for future revisions? 

 Does it provide a sufficiently clear basis for ac- 

 tion (or reaction) in its support by — 

 the public, 



the scientific community, 

 the Congress, and 

 the Executive Branch? 

 The answers to these questions ought to be 

 "yes." But candor compels that it be at best, "well, 

 partly." Duplication and waste do not seem to be 

 evident on the interagency scale this plan is con- 

 cerned with, but it has been impossible to confirm 

 this at levels of greater detail. The work of an in- 

 dividual agency often contributes to several goals, 

 and most goals require the support of several agen- 

 cies, but coordination at the interagency level is 

 felt to be generally effective in minimizing duplica- 

 tion and waste. Thorough documentation is not 

 possible. 



Mention has been made of ICO hopes for joint 

 marine centers where enterprises of an interdis- 

 ciplinary and interagency nature might be under- 

 taken. Since the need or utility of such centers has 

 not been thoroughly documented as yet, nor is it 

 being formally studied, it is not yet clear whether 

 this may be an opportunity made possible by cen- 

 tralized planning which is in danger of being over- 

 looked. 



One possible inconsistency between goals and 

 programs has been revealed. Unless the program 

 for training new manpower for oceanography is 

 more successful than seems likely at present, one 

 or more of the federal goals will suffer through di- 

 lution of the quality of the work force. The most 

 vulnerable is the goal of strengfthening basic sci- 

 ence and the most likely encroachment is from 



defense. Unfortunately the manpower problem is 

 only partly solvable at the federal level, being 

 strongly dependent on actions by universities and 

 by individuals now outside the field. The present 

 federal program should be carefully reviewed, 

 however, to see whether more is possible. 



Ships and facilities, the longest lead-time items, 

 seem roughly in balance with the goals they are to 

 support, the rest of the programs of which they are 

 a part, and with each other. The net gain of about 

 50 ships which is planned over the decade together 

 with the approximately $104 million in new facili- 

 ties to be built averages overall to somewhat more 

 than the ratio of $1.5 million in facilities for every 

 new ship in the fleet which was recommended by 

 the National Academy of Sciences Committee on 

 Oceanography. Whether this will work out to be a 

 proper balance in the way each is deployed is 

 impossible to estimate at the moment. 



The comparison with oceanographic programs 

 abroad was made to the extent the limited infor- 

 mation allowed. It was limited to the present, 

 rather than projecting into the future, and was less 

 than adequate in the case of the USSR. With the 

 possible exception of the USSR, the United States 

 effort appears to exceed considerably that of the 

 other world leaders in oceanography— Japan, the 

 United Kingdom, and Canada. All are sufficiently 

 small, however, in comparison with their objectives 

 to make international cooperation highly beneficial 

 to each. 



The major deficiencies in this plan appear to be 

 those which can be remedied by more extensive 

 and systematic analysis of alternatives, choices, and 

 their consequences. The ICO is not at present in a 

 position to remedy this defect without some 

 strengthening, and how this might be done will be 

 discussed in the next chapter. Finally, whether 

 what has been presented here is of value to the sci- 

 entific community, to Congress, and to the general 

 public, only they can determine. The hope that this 

 will prove to be the case, however, has strongly mo- 

 tivated the effort which this document represents. 



