S54 



The Commission's Estimates: 

 An Overview 



Programs recommended by the Commis- 

 sion are estimated to involve an annual ex- 

 I^enditure growing by 1980 to roughly $1 

 billion per year over and above current pro- 

 gram levels. This approximate doubling of 

 present efforts could be achieved by maintain- 

 ing a 7 to 10 per cent rate of growth over the 

 10-year period, depending upon the size of 

 the expenditure base upon which the pro- 

 posed program may be considered to be built. 

 However, the Commission's estimates assume 

 a more rapid growth early in the coming dec- 

 ade and a leveling off of expenditure in later 

 years as the program reaches maturity and 

 overcomes the current backlog of unmet 

 needs. 



Tables 8-1 and 8-2 show two different per- 

 spectives on the estimated costs of the Com- 

 mission's recommendations. Table 8-1 shows 

 the expenditures classified by major program 

 area; it is simply a condensation of the five 

 tables presented in the earlier chapters. 

 Table 8-2 presents the same expenditures re- 

 categorized by the type of activity or func- 

 tion which must be performed in carrying 

 out the national program. 



Each estimate must be viewed in the con- 

 text of the entire marine program, for there 

 are many interrelationships among its 

 several elements. Land acquisition unguided 

 by a rational management system will not 

 yield full benefits; expanded research pro- 

 grams must be accompanied by expanded 

 systems for processing and disseminating 

 information; major projects will proceed 

 more smoothly if deliberate provision is 

 made for fundamental technological ad- 

 vances. The Commission has considered this 

 problem of internal balance quite care- 

 fully; it is one reason why many of the 

 estimates are projected as "levels of effort" 



rather than as itemized cost calculations. 

 Thus, although the figures shown in this re- 

 port are not individually definitive, we 

 believe they are appropriately related to one 

 another. 



The early phases of the program advanced 

 by the Commission will concentrate on meet- 

 ing immediate needs and on providing the 

 capital facilities and basic data needed to 

 provide a sound foundation for future ex- 

 pansion. Thus, expenses for such activities as 

 the coastal and estuarine inventories, the 

 National Test Facilities Project, equipping 

 marine laboratories, and the near-term im- 

 provements in envii'onmental monitoring 

 systems are needed early in the program and 

 should terminate or decline after the first 

 few years, while the funds for research and 

 exploration projects, manpower develop- 

 ment, and data services will have to keep 

 expanding as our involvement with the sea 

 increases. A few programs, like the mapping 

 of the continental shelves and the acquisition 

 of land in the coastal zone, represent a con- 

 scious decision now to spread a large expendi- 

 ture evenly over an extended time period. 



The nature of the Conmiission's cost esti- 

 mates has not permitted a fully accurate dif- 

 ferentiation between capital and operating 

 expenses, and indeed, for many programs this 

 distinction is very difficult to draw. On an 

 overall basis, capital outlays represent about 

 one-fourth of the total estimated expenditure 

 and include funds for assisting States to ac- 

 quire coastal wetlands as well as for acquisi- 

 tion of laboratory facilities, ship construc- 

 tion, and the capital component of recom- 

 mended National Projects. Capital outlays 

 constitute a larger portion of the overall pro- 

 gram in the early years, whereas funds for 

 research and exploration, fundamental and 

 applied technology, surveys, and laboratory 

 and facility operations grow progressively 

 throughout the decade. 



