87 



across the South Pscific. To this thc3 C'^rn-^gie has alr-ady =idded 

 scvtrTBl lin>3s in that ocean, witn othc.-rs in prospect. A.nd as this is 

 the only method yet discovcrc-d by which detailed surv?ys of large 

 areas of daep ocean can be made v^conomically, important additions to 

 present knowlcidgc of submarin.- topcsraphy ar:^ to be r-xp^cted from her 

 projected passages across the North Pacific and Indian Oceans. 



VI. OCiA-NOGRAPHY, AND SEASONAL vVEATHSR FORECASTS 



The question whether, ox- not, a rational basis for forecasting 

 certain features of the weath^^r, for any part of the world, can be 

 found in the variations that take place in the temperature of the sea, 

 has been much discussed of late, both by meteorologists and by 

 oceanographers. 



In introducing this miatter we must point out that its economic 

 status falls in a category quite different from that of the phases 

 of Oceanography already discussed in this chapt-r. The economic 

 bearing of the exploration of tidal currents, for example, of the 

 charting of coastlines and harbor-approaches, or of the sounding out 

 of shoals is not only direct but immediate; that of m.any specific 

 problems in fisheries biology is equally direct, if less immediate; 

 and the practical importance; of the mor? general phases of oceanic 

 biology is unquestioned, if more remote. But thore is, as yet, no 

 general agreement wheth-r, or to what degree, forecasts ;f the 

 weather, based on the temperature or on any other feature; of the 

 Water, can ever be made reliable enough to prov^- of general service 

 to man, unless it be in specially favorable regions. 



The first economic problem, then, to be solved in the general 

 investigation of the interaction between sea and air is whether this 

 does indeed off.'T reasonable prospect of yielding dirict practical 

 benefits, with s favorabl.- answer pointing th- need of analyzing 

 the possible methods by which such benefits might be attain-d. 



Furthermore, a cl-ar distinction must be drawn betw^'en the type 

 of weather prediction that could be furthered by studies of the 

 atmosphere itself over the oceans (this is not a part of Oceanography), 

 and the type for which som^e meteorologists believe a rational basis 

 can be found in the variations of the thermal state of the water. The 

 first type corresponds mostly to the sort of daily weather charting 

 and forecasting now carried out on shore. If enough stations can be 

 arranged for, and properly distributed over the oceans, it would be 

 possible to forecast the tracks of storms, directions of winds, and 

 state of the weather a day or two in advance over the sea just as is 

 now done on land. Meteorologists - the shipping interests too, have 

 long realized the desirability of such forecasts; the reason that 

 their development has lagged in the past has been the difficulty and 

 prohibitive expense of organizing a sufficient number of recording 

 stations, the necessity for taking all observations from ships which 

 makes it impractical to establish fixed stations, and the weakening 

 of the chain that would result from a failure to obtaining regular 

 reports from the less frequented seas. An attempt to meet these 

 difficulties is now being made by the several weather services, by 

 the designation of Cc:rtain ships as reporting stations according to a 

 uniform plan. The date so collected may be expected to s^rve as the 

 nucleus for statistical studies, embracing also the vast amount of 

 data that is concurrently collectc:d by the great maritime nations. 



