164 GENERAL FARM PROGRAM 



be per year, considering the historical situation of the 1939 to 1948 

 period? 



Secretary Brannan. I woukl say to you, Mr. Anchesen, that if in 

 the course of these hearings we work out three or four basic assump- 

 tions, we will be glad to compute the dollar figures for you and bring 

 them back to you. 



I think you have to make a number of basic assumptions before 

 you can reach any kind of computation. 



Let me give you a thought, offhand. If every quart of milk in the 

 country was sold for direct consumption by human beings, across the 

 counter or via the delivery wagon, and all of them came in to demand 

 the full amount of the difference between the average price of milk 

 and the established support level, you would probably have to com- 

 pute the costs in terms of percentage of differential at somewhere 

 around $200,000,000 for each cent of difference. It might be a little 

 more than that across the whole country. Perhaps it would be 

 $250,000,000 for each cent per year. 



You and I know, however, that every quart of milk is not going to 

 follow that course. We also know that to get milk to the customer at 

 any one of these figures in the area of 15 cents will raise the average 

 of the total selling price of milk of all farmers. Therefore, it is hard 

 to put your finger on any one figure. 



Let me say that we are now getting into whole milk price-support 

 programs, as you well know, because you have been one of the persons 

 strongly urging us to do so. 



Mr. Andresen. It is not very satisfactory when milk goes down in 

 the Middle West to $2.40 a hundred. The offer that you have made 

 is not very satisfactory under those conditions. 



Secretary Brannan. We tried the butter route and the dried 

 skim milk. We tried purchases in those areas to see if they would not 

 achieve the result. We are probably going to have to go directly into 

 the fluid milk production, and that in itself is going to be expensive. 

 That, comparatively speaking, is the only way you can judge this 

 program. 



Mr. Andresen. You are not in a position today to give us an over- 

 all estimate as to the cost of the program recommended in your 

 statement^ 



Secretary Brannan. No; no more than the people who came up 

 with the first price-support program involving loans were able to 

 make the estimate for you then. It depends upon the whole economic 

 situation. I do not know. 



We say we are in need of 150,000,000,000 pounds of milk and that we 

 are still short 30,000,000,000 pounds. Closing the gap between 120 

 and 150 would affect the price. I just do not think you can forecast the 

 future milk prices for several years ahead accurately enough to make 

 firm predictions of cost. I think the ultimate important fact is, 

 How does that cost, whatever it is, relate to the cost which we will 

 sustain under the existing legislation? 



I will be frank in telling you that I do not think you will find much 

 difference in the cost and perhaps the new program will be on the low 

 side. 



The most important thing it will do is increase production of that 

 vital commodity and the other vital commodities and get them in the 

 market place at a reasonable price to all the consumers and relieve us 

 from the continual criticism which is coming out almost every day or 



