GENERAL FARM PROGRAM 227 



Mr. Hope. I certainly do not want to disagree mth the idea of 

 expanding in livestock production, because I can see several reasons 

 why it is a very good idea, and I think it ought to be included under 

 any kind of a program we have. But it seems to me we could do 

 it just as well under the modernized parity concept as we could imder 

 the income approach, if we get about the same results in the way of 

 price. 



Secretary Brannan. Maj^ I suggest tliis additional point, as I 

 understand the modernized price formula it will go down in the future, 

 because production will force it down. 



Under the recommendation here I can conceive that for 1 or 2 

 years possibly that it might go up as much as 1 percent a year for 

 the next 2 years — 2 percent, possibly — and the reason it will go up 

 is because we have put an emphasis on trying to get conversion from 

 some excess commodities into others. 



Mr. Hope. I have not attempted to look into the future far enough 

 to know it will work out that way — and as I say, I do not want to 

 spend too much time on it — but if you could supply us with some- 

 thing definite, in the way of an estimate for the future, I think it 

 would be helpful. 



Secretary Brannan. We can make two assumptions, Mr. Hope, 

 and see how it works out. I do not know that I can do it, but we 

 can have our economists project some of these things for us. Per- 

 sonally I am a little hesitant to lay all of these in front of you, because 

 first of all it does recjuire some assumptions, and every time I make 

 an assumption I have to go back and explain it pretty carefully, and 

 I have made as few assumptions in my presentation here as I could. 



Mr. Hope. I would like some time in the cpurse of the hearings to 

 see some figures which project both your plan, as far as income is 

 concerned, and price, and the modernized parity price. I think that 

 would be of some help. 



Secretary Brannan. Mr. Hope, maybe if you would hke, we can 

 project a series of assumptions, assumptions on individual products, 

 assumption on what the wheat crop will be, what the corn crop will 

 be, and what the demand would be, and then come out with some 

 kind of an answer. 



Mr. Hope. If you use the same assumptions and on the basis of 

 those assumptions 3'ou come out at the end of a 10-year period, we 

 will say, with figures that are as close as they are now, I would say 

 that this method generally would result in about the same figures. 

 I do not think it is the most important question involved in your 

 program, and I do not want to take too much time on it, but I do 

 think it is of some importance. I would like to go to another point. 



Secretary Brannan. Let me say, Mr. Hope, that I would agree 

 with you that if the two formulas come out in the same way over a 

 period of the next few years then perhaps this is much ado about 

 nothing. But my understanding is that production is going up, as 

 you and I and everyone is led to believe, and that prices will go down 

 considerably under the modernized parity program, and they will go 

 up just a slight bit under my recommendation. 



Mr. Hope. That is the reason I would like to see the figm-es if I 

 can. I think they should be interesting. 



Secretary Brannan. I do not want to fool anybody. I am on the 

 bullish side of farm prices; and if the Secretary of Agriculture is not, 



