346 GENERAL FARM PROGRAM 



Assuming that the price of milk goes down 1 cent a quart and is 

 below that $4.22 figure that you have given as the support figure for 

 fluid milk, that is $150,000,000 there. 



If it goes down 5 cents a quart, it would be five times that much, 

 or $750,000,000. That is correct, is it not? 



Secretary Brannan. That is not correct, because it would be 

 incorrect to assume that you would have to pay it on every quart 

 which was sold in the fiuid market. That is what I tried to point out. 

 As a matter of fact, I say that if you paid it on about half of it, 

 you would begin to get the desired results and even help some of the 

 other dairy products. 



Mr. Andresen. Well, if pork goes down in price you have to buy 

 it under your program and we would still have the same national 

 income. You would have to pay out about $550,000,000 on pork if 

 the consumption kept up. 



Secretary Brannan. You are assuming some levels of consumption. 

 We assumed a level of marketing of live hogs over and above 

 20,000,000.000 pounds, which 20,000,000,000 pounds of five hogs 

 would approximately maintain the present support level. Those are 

 all three assumptions. 



Then we tried to compute for you how much it would cost you under 

 the present program to handle that. 



Mr. Andresen. Under the suggestion you have made of a support 

 price of 19 cents — and we will assume that hogs go dow.u to 16 cents — 

 that is a difference of $3, if that is the average over the country. 

 According to my calculation, that would cost the Treasury 

 $570,000,000. 



Secretary Brannan. I also said to you every time I testified that 

 the $19 figure on hogs was a figui-e that was out of line because of 

 the short corn crop and the high demand and the shortage of other 

 kinds of meats. So you are again taking an assumption of $1.50 to $2 

 above where I would be. 



Mr. Andresen. Where would you peg it if you did not use the $19? 

 Secretary Brannan. Let us just say offhand it comes out at $17. 

 Mr. Andresen. So the $19, so far as you are concerned, is not a 

 firm figure? 



Secretary Brannan. No, su-, and I so indicated. 

 Mr. Andresen. I thought that was based on the 10-year formula 

 of taking 1939 to 1948. 



Secretary Brannan. Any formula will have some abnormalities 

 and we wanted a 2-year lag. To adjust abnormalities, even if you 

 have to do so by a purely arbitrary basis. That is why we asked for 

 that period of time. 



Mr. Andresen. Then I can take this as a safe conclusion, that 

 there is no way that you can calculate the cost of the proposed program, 

 any more than you can calculate the cost of the program under 

 existing law? 



Secretary Brannan. That is right. I have said that all along. 

 Mr. Andresen. So any statement that might be made that your 

 program would not be more expensive than the present program is 

 just a conjecture without any proof to substantiate it? 

 The Chairman. That is just an opinion, is it not? 

 Mr. Andresen. That is an opinion. 



Secretary Brannan. That is an opinion and I have only advanced it 

 as such. I gave you four examples of why I thought that would be true. 



