GENERAL FARM PR(3GRAM 



543 



III. 



PROGRAMS TO DEAL WITH TEMPOR.VRY SURPLUSES THAT ARISE LARGELY 

 OUT OF GOOD CROP YEARS 



The nature of farin surpluses 



More "Storm clouds of controversy on the farm pr /)lem liave cen- 

 tered around the question of surphises and of over|>!()duction than 

 any other phase of the problem. There are two kiiKU of surpluses, 

 a temporary surplus due to o-ood yields or unjustified shifts from one 

 crop to another, and general surplus that is too much of everything or 

 an oversupply of a crop or product that lasts for several years. These 

 two general classes of surpluses are often confused in discussions of 

 the farm problem. AIho it seems to us the true nature of each of the 

 two classes of surpluses is often not understood. 



Temporary sur2:>luses in the great majority of cases arise out of good 

 yields and good weather more than a shift of acreages by the farmer. 

 From 1920 to ID^K) acreage changes, most of which may have been due 

 to the action of the farmer, amounted to an average of less than 2 per- 

 cent a year for crops in the country as a whole ; but yield changes 

 were 4.4 times as great, or 8.8 percent, changing total output or pro- 

 duction of crops by T.5 percent per year. Thus the natural changes 

 in production are four times those made by farmers. Actually changes 

 in acres by, farmers had an over-all n.et stabilizing effect in eenain 

 years on production in that they often reduced acres when yields 

 increased. 



It appears, therefore, that about one-fifth of the total year to year 

 changes in farm output is traceable to things the farm operator decides 

 upon and four-fifths are due to nature's vagaries which we will deal 

 with in this portion and will deal with programs arising out of man- 

 made shifts in the next section. People Avedded to production control 

 seem at times oblivious to this basic fact that they really can control 

 only about a fifth of the changes in production. 



When these over-all changes are broken down to a single crop or 

 group of products, the problem of dealing with these seasonal sur- 

 pluses is more clearly shown as is the case with the following table : 



Average of percentage changes from year to year in production of an income 

 from farm products for period 1910-46 ^ 



' Source: Article by Dr. T. W. Schult/e, Economic Stability of American Agriculture, American Farm 

 Economiclournal, November 1947, pp. 809-826. 



The year to year change it will be seen is relatively small in livestock 

 products except pork production and income. The figures for potatoes 

 show why this problem has been and will continue to be troublesome 

 to handle. Production changes of potatoes are high, 14.5 percent a 



