GENERAL FARM PROGRAM 555 



years we are now producing about 20 percent more of farm products 

 than we did prewar. As an offset we have approximately 15 percent 

 more people and everyone is eating about 15 percent more per capita. 

 In general, we are consuming a larger portion of our normal output 

 than we did prewar. Contrary to popular belief, we have never 

 reduced appreciably our per capita production during depressions, and 

 if we can maintain stable conditions we are not likely to reduce pres- 

 ent high per capita rates of consumption in the future. 



In a report to this committee last year, the United States Depart- 

 ment of Agriculture concluded that increases in production dur- 

 ing the next '25 years are likely to be about enough to offset the increased 

 food needed to meet the growth in population. * 



To round out this probable future food j)icture, we need to add one 

 more significant set of facts — the facts on the effects of substitution 

 of tractors for horses on food supplies. After World War I this 

 substitution released feed producing land for food production pur- 

 pose in amounts, during the first 10 years (1920-29) sufficient to ac- 

 count for 50 percent of all the increase in food production ; and dur- 

 ing the decade 1930-39, enough to account for 30 percent of food 

 increases. During the past 9 years this substitution has accounted for 

 only 7 percent of food increases. From now on this substitution of 

 tractors for horses will play a much reduced and declining role. 



Summing up all of these factors of increased production, it can be 

 said from now on we will truly have to dig our food out of approxi- 

 mately the same amount of land we have had heretofore. 



If we can make necessary shifts from wheat and possibly from cot- 

 ton, and a few other crops to more livestock and livestock products, 

 it appeai-s that we are not threatened with "tremendous surpluses." 

 With some drought years like those of the thirties we may find our- 

 selves hard put to it to keep our people supplied with the present good 

 diets — to say nothing of needed increased diets. Our present hysteria 

 of overproduction is probably a great exaggeration of our danger of 

 having "too much abundance." Our real problem is to adjust our 

 production to the balance necessary under normal conditions. 



Mv. Goss has indicated that we do not oppose control in a real 

 emergency. In fact, it may be necessary to use it if wheat, corn, and 

 cotton acreage has not been adjusted to demand after 1950. Even a 

 return of reasonably normal growing weather next year and the re- 

 mainder of this year might change the prospect however. 



THE USE (IF PURCHASES AND LOANS TO SUPPORT PARITY 



We favor continued use of CCC loans and purchases as a valuable 

 and proved means of price support and we would extend the authori- 

 zation of their use to all farm products at the discretion of the Board. 

 The use of these funds if a practical two-price system for export and 

 multiple use crops is installed as we have recommended later in this 

 discussion, would be largely confined to domestic sale crops. If used 

 in connection with export crops, sales at world market prices should 

 be authorized to pieve]it piling up burdensome surpluses of products 

 at home which have been bought at above world market prices. Un- 

 less this is authorized, a purchase program of export crops is, we be- 

 lieve, neither feasible nor practical as a long-time policy. 



