1166 GENERAL FARM PROGRAM 



that would cost, then, $450,000,000 if you operated on the basis of a 

 billion pounds. Of course, I can see you would have to pay on all 

 hogs rather than on the billion pounds as under existing law. 



Secretary Brannan. That is right. 



Mr. Andresen. Have you any estimate as to the prospective cost 

 if the price of hogs goes down $4.50 a hundred below the support price? 



Secretary Brannan. No; but I can sit here and figure it out in a 

 moment. 



Mr. Andresen. I think it would be interesting to have that figure, 

 to give some idea as to the total cost of the program. 



Secretary Brannan. You remember we said for the $230,000,000 

 we could allow prices to go down in the market place about 7 to 10 

 percent, and you can figure out from that, in round figures, what the 

 additional cost might be. 



Mr. Andresen. You would pay it on all the hogs that were sold 

 at $4.50 a hundred under the support price, if that was the average? 



Secretary Brannan. Yes; if that was the average. 



Mr. Andresen. So, if that was 40 million hogs, it would be the 

 poundage of the hogs times $4.50 a hundred? 



Secretary Brannan. In that area. 



Mr. Andresen. Have you any estimate of the prospective cost of 

 the trial program? 



Secretary Brannan. Let us divide the trial program into two parts. 

 Under existing authorities, we would only be under the trial program, 

 say, from October, or whenever the price went below the support price, 

 to the end of the year. Then you go under title II. Under title I, 

 you would be supporting the price on the balance of the hogs marketed 

 between October and the end of that year at the differential I just 

 made reference to a few moments ago. We assume perhaps $150,- 

 000,000 would probably be the outside figure for that type of operation 

 for that period of time. 



Mr. Andresen. Does Mr. Richards have any idea how many hogs 

 will be marketed from the spring pig crop for the balance of the year? 



Mr. Richards. The total live weight of hogs marketed on an annual 

 basis in 1948 was about 15,000,000,000 pounds. Now, it is pretty 

 hard to say what it will be in the year beginning October 1949, but a 

 figure of 16,000,000,000 is certainly not out of order, and it might be 

 close to 17,000,000,000. 



Mr. Pace. What percentage of the crop of hogs is marketed from 

 October 1 to January 1? 



Mr. Richards. I would say from 30 to 35 percent. 



Mr. Pace. About one-third? 



Mr. Richards. About one-third. It is more than a quarter. 



Mr. Andresen. What, then, is the total production for marketing 

 of hogs in poundage, do you think? 



Mr. Richards. That was the figure I was giving — around 17,- 

 000,000,000. 



Mr. Andresen. And around 35 percent of that is marketed in the 

 fall? 



Mr. Richards. Yes — the last 3 months of the year. 



Mr. Andresen. Now, as I understand it, Mr. Secretary, under 

 your program each farmer, assuming it becomes a permanent pro- 

 gram, would be allowed to produce up to 550 hogs and receive the 

 support price on that number, which is 1,800 units. Do you contem- 



