GENERAL FARM PROGRAM 1185 



gilts which have had their pigs, the pigs are weaned, the young sows 

 fattened and sent on to market. This year very few of such hght- 

 weight sows are coming in. What is happening? They are being 

 rebred for fall pigs. 



I got that statement from the head of the Government Livestock 

 Reporting Service at the yards, so I have every reason to believe it is 

 absolutely right. Also, I am told that the number of gilts coming to 

 market now is dropping very, very sharply. What is happening is 

 that they are holding them back to breed if this program goes through. 



It was just 2 months ago today that Secretary Brannan was crying 

 on your shoulder, telling you how he would need to support the hog 

 market very soon. And it is important to note that on the day before 

 he made his appearance, the top on 220 to 240 pound Good to Choice 

 hogs at Chicago was $20.75. Immediately upon his telling the 

 consumers and the other buyers of meat what a terrible situation 

 confronted the hog trade, the market started to break. 



The top on April 7, the day he appeared before you, was 50 cents 

 below what it had been on April 6. From the $20.75 top of April 6, 

 the market declined rapidly as he continued to talk, to a top on April 

 30, of $18.25. That was a break of $2.50 a hundred, or a loss to 

 every farmer who sold, of around $7 a head. 



On May 2 the representatives of the various livestock industries 

 appeared before you in emphatic opposition to this program and 

 demanded that the Secretary of Agriculture stop his bearish prop- 

 aganda. On that day the top on hogs was $18.50. On June 2 the 

 top was $22.50. We w^ere convinced in early May that Mr. Brannan, 

 in his appearance before you, was representing the consumers rather 

 than the producers of agricultural products. The market action 

 bears out our contention. 



But unless this committee rejects quickly and most emphatically 

 his demand for a "trial run" (isn't that a slick phrase?) his misunder- 

 stood promises of wartime monetary returns to the farmer can result 

 in such a huge production of hogs that the market might very easily 

 crack far below any possible conception of a fair exchange value of 

 hogs for other commodities. 



The pattern of the past is the guide to the future. The moment 

 it is announced that this "trial run" on hogs is to be adopted, that 

 moment every buyer of hog product for storage will withdraw from 

 the market. And that moment will every foreign buyer of hog 

 products go home to wait. 



This w^ould be inevitable. We got a taste of it in April. No 

 packer would dare to stock his cellars with product in the face of 

 adoption of a program designed to lower prices. Instead of buying, 

 they would liquidate. And foreign buyers would do exactly the same 

 thing. 



Thus the avalanche would be on. So long as prices remained above 

 the support levels, farmers would soon start liquidating their old hogs. 

 Feeders and ranchers with cattle could join if they did not lead the 

 parade to liquidate. So would the poultry industry. I know of no 

 more certain way than this to plunge the Nation into a depression. 



I need not go much into detail to show you that such a break in 

 cattle and sheep and poultry prices would be inevitable, nor what this 

 would do to every man with these animals on farms. For the livestock 

 feeder, it would be a repetition of the history of the OPA which, for 



