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regions is the so-called Komi oil spill. The Komi Republic of Russia 

 became the focus of international attention last fall when the press 

 reported a number of large oil spills. It is estimated that 100,000 

 tons of crude oil were spilled, an amount nearly three times the 

 size of the Exxon Valdez disaster. 



International concern was raised that spilled oil might make it 

 into nearby rivers that feed into the Barents Sea, thereby polluting 

 the Arctic Ocean. At the request of senior policy makers, MEDEA 

 worked closely with intelligence community and NOAA and EPA 

 analysts to determine the risk to the Arctic Ocean. Data from na- 

 tional security assets and other sources were analyzed to determine 

 the location of the largest spills. 



In addition, and perhaps more importantly, the specific type of 

 permafrost terrain surrounding the oil spill locations was deter- 

 mined in this way. This information, combined with the knowledge 

 that the oil was a high-paraffin crude, led to a consensus that these 

 spills posed only a minimal threat to regions outside of the imme- 

 diate area, mainly because the local marshes prevented much of 

 the oil from reaching the major rivers. 



The Komi oil spill demonstrates the ability of national security 

 systems to provide detailed local information for characterizing and 

 monitoring a pollutant. In order to understand the more global im- 

 pacts, scientists and decisionmakers must be able to predict where 

 the pollutant may be transported and how much of it will reach a 

 given destination. 



For oceaii dumping of toxic wastes, this requires the use of mod- 

 els that predict the circulation of water bodies and the flow rate 

 of rivers and tributaries. To be accurate, these models depend on 

 inputs describing environmental conditions and processes that are 

 not well understood for all parts of the world. 



This is the second area where data from national security sys- 

 tems can have an impact. To improve existing transport models, 

 several MEDEA investigations are estimating global ocean circula- 

 tion patterns as well as flow patterns in coastal regions. This infor- 

 mation is difficult or impossible to generate with other existing re- 

 mote sensing systems and requires the unique attributes of the na- 

 tional security systems. The large classified Navy data bases are 

 also rich with data and MEDEA is working closely with the Navy 

 on these activities. 



An important point here is that data taken by national security 

 systems can be combined with data from civil systems to provide 

 a much better base for the application of models developed by the 

 Navy, NOAA, EPA, and the Department of Energy. 



An upcoming MEDEA investigation that will have direct impact 

 on the use of national security systems for monitoring oceanic pol- 

 lution is the Arctic Climatology Study, which will combine United 

 States and Russian data bases to provide an unparalleled global 

 view of the Arctic. Russian hydrographic and ice information will 

 provide a much finer view of Arctic processes than the United 

 States currently possesses and this will significantly improve exist- 

 ing circulation models. In addition, this study will specifically in- 

 vestigate the use of radionuclides as traces for oceanic circulation 

 patterns, thus providing a necessary validation of the models. 



