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locatioiis of the largest oil spills. In addition, and perhaps more importantly, the specific 

 type of permafrost terrain surrounding the oil spill locations was detemiined. This made 

 it possible to predict whether a significant amount of the spilled oil would flow through 

 the local terrain and into the nearby rivers, or whether the local terrain would trap most 

 of the oil, preventing further significant contamination. This information, combined with 

 the knowledge that the oil was a high-paraffin crude led to a consensus that these spills 

 posed only a minimal threat to regions outside of the immediate area, mainly because the 

 local marshes prevented much of the oil from reaching the major rivers. 



The Komi study illustrated that national security systems could provide detailed 

 information concerning both the pollutant and the local environment that was essential in 

 estimating the impact of the spill on a larger region. This and other studies demonstrate 

 an additional capability that MEDEA has been developing over a range of its activities 

 that will be very important to future evaluations: the ability to combine the talents 

 available in the scientific community, civil government agencies, and the Intelligence 

 Community to respond to policy-related questions concerning world-wide pollution 

 effects. Integrating the expertise of the MEDEA scientists with the analytical resources 

 of the Intelligence Community led to a quick and accurate response to the Komi oil spill. 

 This, plus the greater openness of the Intelligence Community that has allowed results 

 from national security systems to be discussed in an open forum, was used successfully 

 in the Komi oil spill study, and may be a useful model for addressing future pollutant 

 problems. 



The Komi oil spill demonstrates the ability of national security systems to provide 

 detailed local information for characterizing and monitoring a pollutant. In order to 

 understand the more global impacts, scientists and decision makers must be able to 

 predict where the pollutant may be transported and how much of it will reach a given 



