TRUSTS AND PRICES 151 



1898, the price went up from 1.50 cents to 2.79 cents, and 

 towards December of the next year it rose as high as 4.13 

 cents. The average price for 1880-89 is obtained by com- 

 putation at 2.04 cents per gallon, and that for 1890-99, at 

 2.19 cents. Thus the fluctuations within a few months ran 

 at times as high as 90 per cent above the average price. This 

 would leave little room for sound business calculations, since 

 it was a mere matter of chance with the oil producer, in under- 

 taking to drill a well, whether the price of crude oil would be 

 doubled or cut by one half. 



It is the opinion of Professor Jenks that arbitrary inter- 

 ference with prices by the trust was limited to special locali- 

 ties and on the whole " produced no great effect on the entire 

 market. . . . The greater general changes seem to have been 

 due to the changes in supply brought about by other causes." 

 His figures, however, justify a different conclusion. To con- 

 fine ourselves to the period following after the organization 

 of the Standard Oil company, the depression in 1891 to 1893 

 is ascribed to the discovery of a new field in Pennsylvania 

 with some of the largest wells ever known in this country. 

 Still referring to the tables, we find that the stocks of Pennsyl- 

 vania oil in 1892 were one half those in 1882, and yet the 

 average price in 1882 was 78£ cents, while in 1892 it was 55^- 

 cents. In 1893 the stocks were only 5 per cent above those in 

 1898, and the production was 1 per cent less than in 1898, and 

 yet the price in the latter year was 91 £ cents, while in 1893 

 it was 64 cents. In 1895, "the market was largely specula- 

 tive for a time," and it was claimed "that the advance in crude 

 oil was largely arbitrary" and intended to overthrow the 

 independent refiners; the contention is not disputed by Pro- 

 fessor Jenks. The decline in 1897 is ascribed to the opening 

 of the West Virginia fields ; yet the annual output was affected 

 only to the extent of 1,200,000 bbls., an increase of 3^ per 

 cent, — and the stocks on hand were increased by a like 

 quantity; so whereas in the preceding year they had been 

 equal to the output of fourteen weeks, in 1897 they reached 

 the output of sixteen weeks; this could hardly be spoken of 

 as oversupply of the market, and yet the price fell from 

 $1.19 to 78| cents per barrel. These are all the cases cited 



