388 W. R. LAWSON 



a hitch in the fulfillment of his contract by buying for October, 

 December, January, or any other month. 



A third example of the bona fide usefulness of " futures" 

 is to be seen in dealing for foreign markets. The dealer may 

 in course of his regular business have to enter into contracts 

 for millions of bushels. To carry such a risk unprotected 

 would be madness, especially when it can be insured, as it 

 were, by post-dated sales or purchases. In short, the scope 

 for legitimate dealing in future wheat or corn is unlimited. 

 At the same time it opens up still wider scope for speculation. 

 A large portion of the grain trading in Chicago and New York 

 is speculative. Three fourths speculative to one fourth regu- 

 lar business might be about the proportion of the two. Again 

 the speculative section of the market has many degrees. It 

 may extend from punting for a few dollars up to a corner en- 

 gineered by millionaires. But, large or small, all have this 

 feature in common — they are little else than betting on the 

 weather, with the help of a state aided weather bureau. Even 

 the department of agriculture has to become an indirect ac- 

 complice of the grain speculators. 



Both the department of agriculture and the weather 

 bureau conduct for the public benefit a highly organized 

 statistical service which, without their intending it or being 

 able to prevent it, tends to foster this kind of gambling. It is 

 not their fault that the gambler can make as good or even 

 better vise of their information than the legitimate trader. 

 Anyhow, the result is that an immense volume of business, 

 speculative and otherwise, is based on the weather and crop 

 reports issued periodically by the government. The influ- 

 ence of these reports extends even beyond the grain trade, 

 and has at times a powerful effect on the stock markets. 

 From the moment that the seed goes into the ground the grow- 

 ing crops become a subject of lively interest on every stock 

 and produce exchange in the United States. Day by day 

 their prospects are discounted as an item in the current year's 

 business, the traffics of the railroads, and the general eco- 

 nomic situation. As they approach the critical stage the prob- 

 able yield of the various crops is appraised by a host of expert 

 statisticians, and every slight fluctuation in their condition 



